What do election manifestos tell us about Indian politics

Promises can be seen in election manifestos. However, there is little research on manifesto in India. This is surprising given the rich content they provide in terms of ideological and policy promises. These are literal promises for which the parties can be held accountable. Therefore, it is a major research oversight.

We conducted a preliminary content analysis of the manifestos of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for four general elections from 2004 to 2019. The initial insight is interesting. For example, we find that the UPA manifestos of 2004 and 2009 were almost half the size of the NDA manifestos. In 2014, though the two manifestos were almost equally vast, the UPA document saw a vast expansion in 2019. In contrast, the size of the NDA manifesto, which has been declining over time, has fallen to an all-time low in 2019.

How many promises have these manifestos made? To answer this, we divided the manifesto into three major sections: a) the party’s introduction and ideological framework; b) the work done by the Coalition in its previous term; and c) plan for the next term. The ideological framework of political parties often has a separate subsection dedicated to their greatest political opponent. For example, the UPA manifesto had a separate section called ‘Congress vs BJP’ or ‘Congress as the only option’ for the three most recent elections in a row; It was called the ‘monumental failures of the BJP/NDA’ in 2004. While the NDA manifesto does not have a coherent section devoted to it, they strongly criticize the tenure of the UPA in their introduction and at the beginning of their plan for the upcoming term. .

More important is the third section on planning and promises for the upcoming term. Our assessment shows that in 2004 and 2009, the NDA devoted 80% of its manifesto to promises. This steadily declined to 65% in 2019, when the last general election was held. On the other hand, about 55% of the content of the UPA manifesto was on election promises, which increased to around 75% by 2019. This indicates that the parties devoted a greater part of their manifestos to planning their next term when they were in opposition than when they were in power. It may also indicate that those likely to remain in power will devote less of their manifestos to promises.

How many and what kind of promises are these? If one only looks at the total number of promises made in the manifesto, the numbers for the UPA have been much lower than those for the NDA during 2004, 2009 and 2014. However, in 2019, the UPA made 70% more promises than the NDA. . This is also because the number of NDA promises has come down significantly in 2019.

We divided the manifesto promises into two groups, false and false. The former are promises accompanied by the names of action plans, governance specifics, numerical targets and policies, and/or statements on the time required to fulfill them. The progress of these promises can be tracked objectively. For example, “Loan is a civil liability and we will not allow criminal proceedings against a farmer who is unable to repay his loan” is a false promise. Mature voters need more of this type. On the other hand, mention of any policy, action plan or funding is vague and unaccounted for; They are accompanied by phrases such as “ensure development”, “promise”, “we will take every possible step”. For example, “we will expedite procurement of excellent defense equipment and weapons” is a non-committal and thus unmistakable promise. While they may work in practice, a large proportion of them in the manifesto are a sign of weak electoral democracy.

We find that through the four general elections under study, the share of falsehoods and false promises is generally the same in all manifestos. Interestingly, we have seen a significant increase in the share of false promises in the 2014 and 2019 UPA manifestos. This suggests that the UPA is trying to establish greater transparency and accountability in governance, and thus may attract voters to appreciate a relatively specific policy- driven agenda rather than verbose and hollow promises. His defeat in both these elections may indicate that it has had little effect on voting decisions. Even in this context, the manifestos have much to reveal.

As the importance of written election promises increases over time, and political parties assume more power, their manifestos are more useful as tools for studying the minds of voters, as well as for mapping a country’s political priorities. Will be Global research efforts are underway to understand the political preferences of parties. For example, the Manifesto Project, housed at the Social Science Research Center in Berlin, works on a large database of manifestos of political parties from 50 countries. India is not a part of it yet. Yet, over time, Indian discourse is sure to have significance. As important elections are due in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur early next year, it is important to start looking at these documents more closely.

Yugank Goel, Sahil Dev and Ovi Karva are associate professors of public policy at Flame University, co-founders of CPC Analytics, and research assistants at CPC Analytics, respectively.