What does Russia want from Ukraine? Tension between Putin and NATO explained

Why is Ukraine important to Russia?

At the end of the Cold War in 1991, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and borders Russia to the east. The dissolution of the Soviet Union left Russia with a greatly reduced population, territory and economy. It also undermined Russia’s superpower status. Now Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to reclaim some of that glory and undo what Russia lost in the Cold War. He describes Russians and Ukrainians as “one people, one whole”.

Does Russia want to invade Ukraine?

Russia has repeatedly denied plans to attack. But Moscow has gathered 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine and is moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment west from bases in Russia’s Far East.

In addition, Russia is moving the military and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems to Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Russia has also moved several ships to the Black Sea and the Azov Sea off the coasts of Ukraine.

It is also conducting naval exercises with Chinese naval forces in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and in the Arabian Sea. On January 25, Moscow announced new military exercises in the North Caucasus.

In late January, Western defense officials said Russia had sent medical units to the front, which were advancing at a level not reached in the previous buildup.

With Ukraine largely in troops, Mr. Putin aims to extract concessions from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and force him to give Russia a say in Ukraine’s future. This would send a message to other former Soviet states that the West could not guarantee their security. To intensify the pressure, Mr. Putin has a range of military options from full occupation, from low-profile incursions to a limited conflict in the eastern Donbass region, where Russian-backed separatists have declared themselves independent of Ukraine. , but isn’t recognized by the government in Kiev.

President Biden has said he expects Russia to act against Ukraine in some way, though Washington and Moscow have agreed to continue talks on how to ease the crisis.

Where is Ukraine?

Ukraine is located in Eastern Europe and shares its eastern border with Russia. To the west, it is bounded by Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova, and to the north by Belarus. The Black Sea runs along the southern coast of Ukraine.

Is Ukraine an ally of the US and is it part of NATO?

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union when Ukraine gained its independence, the US has had diplomatic relations with the country. The US is eager to see Ukraine grow into a democracy that the State Department describes as a “Russian invasion”.

Ukraine is not part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but it is a “partner country” for the military alliance, and the agreements mean it could become a member of NATO in the future. Mr Biden has said that Ukraine’s possible NATO membership is unlikely in the near future, although he said the decision is ultimately up to the coalition.

What is NATO doing in response to Russia’s military build-up?

NATO allies are strengthening the coalition’s eastern side, which borders Ukraine, by deploying jet fighters and ships in the area in response. The European Union has planned more than $1.3 billion in loans and grants to Ukraine. The Pentagon ordered thousands of troops to prepare for a possible deployment.

What does Putin want?

Mr Putin has been clear about Russia’s desire to re-establish influence over its neighbours, particularly Ukraine. In 2014, it annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, fueling an eight-year war in the east of the country.

But he has created an aura of unpredictability about his next move.

As of now, Mr. Putin has left Western leaders to speculate whether he will stage a major invasion of Ukraine and provoke a possible breakdown in relations with the West, or whether he will seek some concessions from his extensive list of demands. Will be satisfied about placed in front. These include that NATO guarantees that it will not give membership to Ukraine.

Moscow has also demanded that NATO curb military exercises in Ukraine and other former Soviet countries, and that the coalition withdraw its forces from its eastern member states. NATO deployed about 5,000 troops to Poland and the Baltic countries after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.

What did America say on those demands?

The US and its allies rejected Moscow’s demands in a series of meetings with Russian officials in mid-January, arguing that states are free to engage with any other state they choose.

The US made unpublished proposals to the Russian Foreign Ministry on January 26 to discuss ways to avoid a confrontation in the Black Sea and conduct missile-related inspections on each side, according to US officials and people briefed by the Biden administration. .

Moscow said Mr Putin would take his time to consider the proposals but there was little room for optimism.

What if Russia invaded Ukraine?

Mr Biden said if all troops on the border went to Ukraine, it would be the biggest offensive since World War II.

On January 25, Mr. Biden said he had made it clear to Mr. Putin that “if he moved to Ukraine there would be serious consequences, including significant economic sanctions, as well as I would feel our presence, an Eastern Front, Poland, obliged to increase NATO presence in Romania, etc.”

Experts say the fines were imposed after annexing Crimea, despite efforts by Moscow to sanitize its economy, adding that the tough measures could inflict widespread economic pain on the country.

Ukraine’s military has grown heavily since Russia’s invasion of Crimea, and although still outside Russia, could impose a high price on any invading army, its leaders and analysts say.

What is Nord Stream 2 and what is its role in the crisis?

Nord Stream 2 is a natural-gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany, which is a member of NATO, and is awaiting signoff from German regulators.

US lawmakers and some officials worry that the 764-mile pipeline will tighten Russia’s hold on the European energy market and weaken Ukraine, which hosts a gas-transit network, as it tries to resist a Russian invasion. Is. Germany is the world’s largest buyer of Russian gas, getting more than half of its supply from Russia. Nord Stream 2 will double the capacity of Russian gas exports to the country currently through the parallel Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Officials in the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have said privately that it would mothball Nord Stream 2 in case of a Russian invasion.

Publicly, Mr Scholz has made no such commitment, despite repeated urgings from Washington and other allies who hope to use the pipeline as leverage against the Kremlin. The chancellor has said that Nord Stream 2 is a purely private sector project that should be separated from political discussions.

European officials are scrambling to secure backup energy supplies in the event that a conflict disrupts flows from Russia, enlisting US help and talks with gas producers such as Qatar and Azerbaijan.

(Georgie Kanchev and William Mauldin contributed to this article)