Political parties anywhere in the world that have been in power for longer periods of time have also done so by being able to use foreign policy to support the interests of the regime. As one of the longest-lived ruling parties in the world, it is no surprise that the Communist Party of China (CCP) has shown its ability to communicate and interpret foreign policy or international issues to the Chinese public. is honored in such a way that burns its legitimacy to rule. But as China has grown into a global economic power, the CCP has also been able to shape and determine the terms of the international narrative.
Beijing’s military is conducting exercises in view of the visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan earlier this month. Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the exercise has allayed international concerns about a possible US-China conflict on the island. These concerns fall into the hands of the CCP for a number of reasons.
One, the international community denies Taiwan any agency in its affairs or about its future, making it a US-China issue. This effectively undermines not only the democratic polity that exists in Taiwan, but also what India and other democratic political systems see as legitimate global benchmarks of a liberal international order that expands the space for democracies. The order is something the CCP-led Chinese state has long tried to do away with as it regards the existence of democracy as challenging its own authoritarian brand of politics at home.
Second, concerns over the Taiwan conflict beget to raise a fundamental question about the legitimacy of the Chinese claim on Taiwan. This claim is a relatively recent claim in Chinese history—even the CCP did not double it for several decades after its existence. But it speaks to the effectiveness of Chinese propaganda and the supremacy of the narrative that Pink Floyd’s Roger Waters can vehemently say on CNN that “Taiwan is part of China”.
Third, the fear of an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan draws heavily from the immediate context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and allows Beijing to once again extract exploitation and concessions from the international community. This does not mean that Chinese threats should not be taken seriously. The latest Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have gone further than any so far with a combination of missile tests, midline crossings by military ships and overlapping exercise areas along Taiwan’s territorial waters. However, according to timetables set by foreign media or other countries, China will not follow a schedule for a military invasion of Taiwan – if it ever does.
The danger really lies in the generalization of such practices over time. India should know a thing or two about this. Chinese breaches on the LAC in 2020 led to surprising and consequential successes by conditioning Indian security agencies for large-scale PLA exercises every summer in front of Ladakh.
Looking at the history of recent events—Depsang in 2013, Chumar in 2014, Doklam in 2017 and Galwan in 2020—it should be clear that Chinese assertiveness on the LAC and in India’s neighborhood is going to be an enduring feature. Under these circumstances, whatever happens with respect to Taiwan is a lesson for India and vice versa. A position on Taiwan is also a test of India’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Fourth, a return to Chinese domestic politics, analyzes the intensity and efficacy of Xi Jinping’s need for a crisis as a way to consolidate his position for the 20th CCP Congress at the end of the year. their opposition within. Once again, Indians should understand this aspect much better—if most Indians see their ruling party as a shoo-in for a third term in elections in such a complex, diverse state, an authoritarian party has a strong How hard can it be for the individual-state to stack the odds in its favor in a Congress of 2,300 odd delegates? And especially when he has run intense anti-corruption campaigns for nearly a decade, targeting opposition within the party as well as taking action to punish tendencies in academia and industry to ignore party decrees. Is – especially in the high-tech sector of China?
Indirectly, such references to Xi’s ‘strength’ help promote Xi’s personality and stature in international politics as well as help him further cement his centrality in Chinese politics. Once again this fits in well with China’s efforts, making other countries – at least in Western media and policies – from Brazil’s Bolsonaro to Turkey’s Erdogan to Russia’s Putin, and countries with their own leaders. And attempts are made to undermine the international liberal order by driving a tendency to identify with their foreign policies. Most recently, Trump of America. When democracy also privileges individuals over institutional processes, consider it a victory for Xi and the CCP’s brand of politics.
Finally, we must also not forget perhaps the biggest benefit for the CCP from the Pelosi visit – the opportunity to quell nationalist hysteria against the US and against Taiwan serving the CCP regime to cover a multitude of domestic economic problems.
Unemployment in the 16-24 age group hit a record high in June this year, with one in five having jobs and families threatening to stop paying mortgages on flats they own from Chinese property developers. is not captured as the default. Billion dollar tune. This is not going to be an easy situation for the Chinese banking system to resolve without massive write-offs or without offering huge bailouts to central and local governments. With the economic recovery under pressure from its zero-Covid as well as the global economic slowdown, China’s leaders are soon going to be unable to increase the income share of their country’s GDP. In these circumstances, paying attention to small things real or imaginary provides a convenient distraction for the CCP.
Given New Delhi’s own experiences at the end of Chinese violations of treaty obligations on the LAC and the false narratives built around these examples, it is a matter for the Indian government and analysts to pay more attention to the domestic imperatives driving the Chinese. To shape foreign and security policies and India’s counter-narratives and responses accordingly.
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