What numbers in Bihar Assembly look like if Nitish Kumar switches alliance?

Uncertainty looms over the future of Mahagathbandhan in Bihar amid speculations that the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) might snap ties with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Sources told Jan Ki Baat on Friday that Nitish Kumar is likely to resign in 24 hours and is “poised to form government in Bihar”, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Follow LIVE Updates in Bihar politics here

Nitish Kumar is the current Chief Minister of Bihar. He formed the Bihar government in alliance with Lalu Yadav’s RJD, the Congress and Left parties in 2022, after snapping ties with the NDA. Nitish Kumar is also a key member of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc.

ALSO READ: Nitish Kumar may take oath as Bihar CM on Sunday with BJP support: Report

Here’s a look at the composition of Bihar Assembly today:

As of now, the RJD is the single-largest party in the Bihar Assembly. The Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 members. Here’s what the party-wise composition looks like as per data available on Bihar Vidhan Sabha website:

The RJD has 79 MLAs

The JD(U) has 45 MLAs

The BJP has 78 MLAs

The CPI(M-L)(L) has 12 MLAs

The Congress has 19 MLAs

The HAM (S) has 4 MLAs

The AIMIM has 1 MLA

The CPI(M) has 2 MLAs

The CPI has 2 MLAs

There’s one Independent MLA

A political party needs 122 (half) of the total 243 seats to form government in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan in Bihar has 159 MLAs in total.

ALSO READ: Bihar CM Nitish Kumar handed JD(U) mantle for second time

What if JD(U) pulls out?

Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which has 45 MLAs in the Bihar assembly, may form a government in alliance with the BJP, which has 78 MLAs. Both parties together will have 123 MLAs, just one more than the half-way mark required to form the government. The Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM [S]) had also joined the NDA in July 2023, making the task easier for Nitish Kumar.

ALSO READ: Is Nitish Kumar returning to NDA? A guide to what’s happening in Bihar politics

If JD(U) quits and the RJD plans to stake claim for the government in alliance with the Left parties, then the coalition would need eight more MLAs to come into power in the state. Without the JD(U), Lalu’s party RJD, along with the Left, would make 114 MLAs — eight short of the halfway mark.

However, there has been no official confirmation on the JDU-RJD’s alleged tussle. Meanwhile, RJD MP Manoj Jha requested Nitish Kumar to “resolve this confusion“. Bihar Congress MLA Dr Shakeel Ahmad Khan said, “There is no confirmation of the news that is coming. Our MLAs are united and stand with the party. There is no basis for such news…”

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Published: 26 Jan 2024, 07:13 PM IST