Here are five different options taken by security experts who spoke with AFP, following the capture of the strategic Ukrainian city of Lisichansk by Russian troops on Sunday:
– grinding advance –
Russian forces appear on course to take full control of the Donbass region, already partly occupied by pro-Kremlin separatists before the February 24 invasion.
With Lysychansk and its twin city severodonetsk Captured in the past weeks, Putin’s forces “could hope to take Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and surrounding areas,” said Pierre Grasser, a researcher at the Sorbonne University in Paris.
Sloviansk in particular is home to a “relatively welcoming population – at least those who have been there” rather than fleeing the fight, he said.
But there may also be a limit to how far the Russians can exert pressure on their neighbor’s territory.
Pierre Razoux, academic director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), said, “Their steamroller works well near their own borders, their own logistic centers and their airbase. The farther they go, the harder it is to “
– Control the Black Sea –
The southern Ukrainian city of Kherson was one of the first to fall for Russian forces in the early days of the war.
But Russia’s hold on the country’s Black Sea coast is not secure.
“counter-attack Ukraine In the south… put the Russian army in a dilemma. Do they maintain their eastern offensive, or do they significantly strengthen the south?” said Mick Ryan, a former general in the Australian Army.
He said the question was even more pressing because “the war in the south is a front of greater strategic importance” than in the Donbass.
Claiming territory along the coast could allow Moscow to build a land bridge to the Crimean peninsula, which it added in 2014, while both sides seek to control Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
– Crack Kharkiv –
Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, lies close to the northeastern border with Russia – and lies in a pocket still controlled by Kyiv that has yet to be cut by the Russian military.
“If the Ukrainians collapse and Kharkiv is completely isolated, the Russians may force them to commit to defending the city or pressurize south towards Kherson,” Pierre Razoux said.
He said it would be up to President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian commanders to “deploy their units to prevent a major summer breakthrough” that could encircle Kharkiv.
Home to 1.4 million people in peacetime, the siege of Kharkiv could be a bloody affair lasting a year, Razoux said.
– Divide West –
While the West has so far held up a united front of sanctions and support for Ukraine, continued Russian progress could separate the decision from the interests of the allies.
Colin Clark, research director at the Soufan Center think-tank in New York, said: “The goal for Russia is to continue to grind Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, while waiting for political will among Western nations to support Ukraine. “
The delivery of Western military aid has been too slow and too short to turn the battle decisively in Kyiv’s favour.
Meanwhile, the inflationary effects of the war on fundamentals such as food and energy could gradually shift public opinion away from strong initial support for Ukraine.
“Americans can tell Ukrainians ‘you can’t go any further’,” said Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Strategy.
– open communication –
Russia itself is paying a heavy price for Western sanctions, battlefield casualties and loss of military material.
Colin Clark said, “Putin will be forced to negotiate at some point, biting off more than he can chew.”
At the end of June, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov already took up the option of talks – on the condition of “implementing all the conditions set by Russia”, which are unacceptable to Kyiv.
But his control over domestic information means the Russian leader has the freedom to tell the public that his objectives have been achieved and justify a break in fighting.
A bigger challenge could be the split on the Ukrainian side.
Pierre Razoux said the radical and military leader would “deny any agreement with Russia” even if Zelensky was ready to strike a deal.
“They could endure a frozen struggle, but not give up.”
This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed.