Why the world needs peace in Ukraine

As the war continues in Ukraine, an end to the destruction and suffering seems increasingly elusive, as neither side is ready to bow down – not least because both feel they can “win”. For Russia, its revised strategic objectives include capturing the prosperous industrial, manufacturing and agricultural region known as Donbass in eastern Ukraine, expanding its reach to the south to create a land link to Crimea. , which is already there since 2014. Some analysts believe that Russia wants to annex the entire southern Ukrainian coast, including the major port of Odessa, and annex that region with the Russian separatist republic of Transnistria in eastern Moldova. As far as Ukrainians are concerned, they are ready to drive the Russians out of all regions of Ukraine, including, in some statements, even Crimea.

There are currently no serious peace efforts underway. Israel and the Turks seem to have abandoned their efforts, and the visit of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres helped improve humanitarian relief, but did not face a military conflict. India is well prepared to try, enjoying as it believes both sides, but our government appears to be surrounded by a curious austerity to address the issue – perhaps because it seeks peace. Is deeply pessimistic about the possibilities.

‘War against Russia’

But if someone somehow persuades both sides to come to the negotiating table, what would a possible peace look like? Between the maximalist positions on both sides, a possible formula was offered, somewhat controversially, by veteran politician Henry Kissinger in Davos last month. He suggested that it was impossible for Ukraine and the West to completely expel the Russians, and equally impossible for the Russians as they are currently attempting to do, with the military and financial support of NATO countries to Kyiv. Looking at the limit. Instead, Mr Kissinger, 99, argued that there should be an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to back the dividing line. status quo ex belum The positions of both armies started on 24 February before the invasion of Russia. For Ukraine and its supporters in the West, it would be a victory, Mr Kissinger argued, while pursuing a war to expel the Russians from Ukrainian territory in February “making it not about Ukraine’s independence but a war against Russia.” can change.”

questioned by the audience Recently, Mr. Kissinger explained, “If the war ends as I sketched in Davos, I think it will be a great achievement for the Allies. Finland, creating the possibility of protecting the Baltic countries.” And besides Sweden, NATO would have been strengthened. Ukraine would have the largest traditional NATO-linked ground power in Europe… Russia would have been shown the fear of a Russian military landing in Europe since World War II.. NATO conventional action. key element in doing so.

However, there is a flaw in Kissinger’s analysis—and that is that Russia has no real reason to accept such a formula. After its initial failure to capture Kyiv, its severe losses of military personnel (including seven generals) and re-focusing on narrow targets, Russia has made significant progress, covering every major city and major southern port of the Donbass. The city is occupied by Mariupol. Given the heavy price he has paid for his invasion so far, it makes no sense for Russia to agree to a peace that obliges to surrender all these advantages. The only way to persuade Russia to do so is if the world’s price of opium and international sanctions become unbearable, but there is no sign of that happening, at least not yet.

pandemic effect

Meanwhile, the collateral damage of war is being borne by the rest of the world. We are all facing the “double whammy” of the economic consequences of COVID-19, especially the associated lockdowns and disruptions to supply chains. Even Massive stimulus packages are in place after the COVID-19 pandemic, as Martin Wolf wrote financial Times, “ignited an inflationary fire” around the world. Meanwhile, punitive Western sanctions on Russia have caused major increases in energy prices, hurting countries like India that have nothing to do with the conflict. The war has removed two-thirds of the world’s wheat exports from markets, driving up food prices. India used to import 75% of its sunflower seeds and oil from Ukraine; which is now zero. Commodity prices are rising everywhere, and inflation is showing no signs of abating.

And then there is the persistence of the pandemic, as various forms of the Omicron virus have been popping up around the world, causing only minor alarm so far, but there is always the potential for a new health crisis. China, with its zero-COVID policy, reacted to the reappearance of COVID (as Omicron) with widespread lockdowns, including in the major commercial capital of Shanghai. China is still the world’s leading manufacturing engine, with the closure of factories and plants in that country severely disrupting the flow of essential supplies, again contributing to global inflation. The crisis next door in Sri Lanka, as the country found itself unable to pay its bills, is only the most extreme manifestation of a problem that, in one form or another, the developing world faces.

To continue the war is to make fun of human suffering. It would destroy world trade, devastate poor countries and hold back global economic growth for years. World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iwela said, “The war in Ukraine has caused enormous human suffering, but it has also damaged the global economy at a critical juncture. Its impact will be felt around the world, Particularly in low-income countries, where food accounts for a large proportion of household spending… small supplies and high prices for food mean that the world’s poor may be forced to do nothing. “

Russians and Ukrainians may not be interested in peace, but the rest of the world certainly is. We cannot afford to continue this war indefinitely. It may take longer for Western countries to realize this – undoubtedly the prospect of a cold without Russian oil and gas could help focus European minds on this realization – but the developing world already knows the situation is unbearable, And if the war continues, disaster looms ahead. Someone should take the initiative and call for peace. If no one else is interested, I hope the call comes from the land of Mahatma Gandhi – before it is too late for all of us.

Shashi Tharoor is the Member of Parliament (Congress) for Thiruvananthapuram (Lok Sabha)