The COVID-19 pandemic has put efforts to put a more assertive global Europe on the backburner – at a time when the global politics of the past two years have caused myriad problems for the bloc. The situation will worsen if prompt action is not taken.
Bold proposals have been made by the Commission, which can go any way in principle to solve these problems.
On Russian aggression and other military issues, the European Union has proposed rapid deployment units tailored to specific missions, reducing reliance on NATO and the US to defend the continent.
The Trump years made Europe acutely aware that it cannot rely solely on the US as an ally. Balancing this relationship between Washington and Beijing, Brussels perhaps naively believed, would prevent the European Union from being crushed between the two powers.
Most European officials agree that the challenges facing the EU need to be addressed, but the reality of trying to achieve a common foreign policy for a group of 27 countries with different domestic priorities is uniquely difficult. Used to be
Jean Monnet’s Chair in EU Politics at Rutgers University, R. Daniel Kelemen said, “The EU makes most of its major decisions by a super-majority, but member states have always been very reluctant to surrender their veto power over foreign policy.” ,
As a result, any common EU foreign policy is at the mercy of individual member states that use unanimously blocked vetoes that they are very happy to use.
Countries like Hungary and Poland, which are following in Brussels’ mischievous footsteps for their undemocratic, anti-EU policies, have the power to tank any meaningful EU policy in retaliation for threats to pull money or take away voting rights. Huh.
This creates a new problem for Brussels, as rivals such as Russia and China can “deal directly with national governments, essentially making them a Trojan horse within the European Union, agents of hostile regimes,” says Kelemen. it is said. It is called.
Lithuanian former prime minister and current MEP Andreas Kubilius noted that the Kremlin exploits this by specifically seeking to “strengthen ties with individual member states”, and not with EU institutions – as institutions are national. are almost always more aggressive than capitals.
However, the foreign affairs headaches facing the EU are larger than disagreements among member states.
“The way the EU is currently set up prevents us from addressing the crises we face,” said Sophie in the Dutch liberal MEP ‘Te Veld’.
“The Commission can take initiative, as it did with Covid, which leads to positive results. but on foreign affairs [it] completely dependent on member states that do not even have a mandate to come [a] Pan-European vision,” she said.
A former commissioner, Julian King, said, “She was not the first choice of her party, which had limited her independence from the start.” “It is more dependent on the capitals, especially Berlin and Paris. Unfortunately, the two do not have as much political stability as they used to be.
Meanwhile, in France, Emmanuel Macron is hoping to secure a second term in office, with the presidential election due in April. King said that even if Macron remains in the presidency, “if he has to rule the country effectively, he will have to contest and win legislative elections, which will probably be focused on domestic issues and we will have to go through the months of June.” ..” will take you to the end.”
That date matters, as France holds the rotating presidency of the European Union for the first half of 2022. Macron has by far been the biggest proponent of a more geopolitical Europe, favoring ideas such as a European military and a foreign policy that simply does not follow the US lead. ,
But many member states have serious objections to the proposal, ranging from its cost to the fact that it does not adequately name and shame Russia. And as Macron focuses on his re-election campaign, capitals most resistant to these policies will be able to ignore the man who, in theory, should be Europe’s most powerful leader – instead of the European Union. Must be the owner. Option to step down from the presidency.
But as long as Europe waits, that crisis will not happen. And its enemies know this.
“There are too many things happening at once and the European Union has historically been very poor in handling the crisis,” said Kathryn Kluwer Ashbruck, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“It doesn’t take long for one problem to run into another: the migration crisis and Ukrainian tensions on the Belarusian border both follow a road to Moscow, extending Putin’s hand in any negotiations,” she said. “It’s not hard to imagine how difficult things could be if China and Russia chose to coordinate.”
So, given all these constraints, what is the possible path forward?
A senior EU diplomat told CNN he was not optimistic: “We know that there are problems, both internal and external, for centuries. The problems have worsened: Russia and China are more vocal; As America is less predictable, and we are more divided. Meanwhile, we are becoming smaller and less important on the world stage.”
However, the diplomat added two caveats that could compel both Brussels and member states to act eventually: “If the US midterm increases the real likelihood of Trump or someone similar returning to the White House and [if] As Russia becomes more assertive, we may feel shocked or helpless from taking radical action. ,
Most agree that radical action will cost Brussels too much and delegate more power.
“In the federal states, the first things that are given to the central government are foreign policy, security, and defence,” says Kelman.
Paying all of this with member states that don’t rely on each other to pay – or commission – would take more than 12 months. But 2022, if COVID falls far short of the agenda, could offer a window on what progress may be made in the coming years.
It remains to be seen how Brussels acts in response to hostilities, whether from Belarus, Russia, China or even the US.
The cost of inaction, several diplomats and officials told CNN, is a steadily declining world stage for the Unity Project that has been intensified by decades of war and division.
Worse, if Europe does not stand up to democracies by challenging their enemies, it could be seen as quietly approving the rise of authoritarian states.
Many stakes are higher in Brussels than those focused on short-term politics. But in 2022, Europe has the opportunity to grow and take its seat as a major global power, upholding a rules-based order and Western values. Failure to seize this opportunity will almost certainly mean that those who oppose these values will continue on the path of no return.