The Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, once considered hardline, came together for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections amid high-level campaigns that the alliance was unbeatable. However, on the ground, things did not work out as expected and the BSP after securing 10 parliamentary seats announced that it was breaking up and blamed the SP for the alliance’s failure. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s silence helped him gain political brownie points.
But with many BSP leaders now joining the SP ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, it seems Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy was carefully crafted to expand his vote bank beyond Yadavs and Muslims.
Recent Switchovers
Recently, BSP leaders who joined SP include Ghatampur MLA RP Kushwaha, cabinet minister KK Gautam, Saharanpur MP Qadir Rana, former BSP chief RS Kushwaha.
Meanwhile, two big names and sitting MLAs, Lalji Verma and Ramchal Rajbhar, who were recently expelled from the BSP, have joined the SP. Verma is a prominent name among OBC (Kurmi) leaders and has held several portfolios under the BSP government.
Rajbhar, an MLA from Akbarpur while Verma from Katehari seat, both also served as cabinet ministers during the BSP regime. Both were considered trusted aides of BSP chief Mayawati.
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With few months left for the state elections due early next year, sources suggest that eight more BSP rebel MLAs may also join the SP soon.
Mayawati on exodus
The exodus may have created a vacuum in the BSP, but Mayawati says she feels it is being done by the SP itself to save its face from a “stampede” within the SP.
Mayawati, while attacking the SP in a series of tweets on October 3, wrote, “Inclusion of selfish, ticket-seekers and expelled people of other parties in the SP is not going to increase the support base of her party.” This is nothing but an attempt to give false comfort to himself and prevent a possible stampede from his party, all this the public understands very well. If SP takes such people to the party, then surely many of their ticket seekers will find a way to go to other parties, this will not increase their party base but will cause more damage, but some people are compelled. out of habit.”
Apart from this, the way the media is presenting these news shows that the importance of BSP is increasing.
A well-crafted scheme to attract non-Yadavs, OBCs
Under a well thought out plan, the SP chief has put forward local and community leaders to garner votes. Akhilesh has sent his SP state president Naresh Uttam Patel on a state-wide tour while another SP leader Rajpal Kashyap has been included in the ‘Kashyap Swabhiman Yatra’. Many say it is an act to show that SP’s campaign is not Akhilesh centric.
As part of the strategy, the SP is focusing on smaller caste-based parties, which have fixed 5,000 to 40,000 votes in each constituency, which, if added to the SP’s traditional votes, can put the party in a stronger position. The BJP had adopted a similar strategy in the 2017 UP assembly elections as well.
The SP has recently declared a backward leader Narendra Verma as its candidate for the post of deputy speaker in the UP assembly. Though Verma lost the election by a huge margin, it gave the SP ammunition to attack the BJP, alleging that he had lost because he belonged to a backward caste.
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SP leader and Leader of Opposition Ramgovind Choudhary had said, “BJP’s anti-OBC face has been shown in the House. BJP pretends to show support and love for OBCs and Dalits but does not allow Narendra Verma to become the Vice President as he belongs to Kurmi caste.
Interestingly, the SP has only 49 MLAs in the state assembly so far, including Shivpal Yadav, who has floated his own outfit, and Nitin Agarwal, who recently joined the BJP. SP got 60 votes, which shows that around 13 MLAs went for cross voting.
Now, Om Prakash Rajbhar, a former minister in the Yogi Adityanath cabinet, has also announced that his party will contest the 2022 UP assembly elections in alliance with the SP. A public meeting has also been organized by Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) at Haldharpur Maidan in Mau on October 27 and Akhilesh Yadav is expected to share the stage with Rajbhar.
After the Akhilesh-Rajbhar meeting in Lucknow, the SP had said, “Purvanchal has 18-22% Rajbhar voters with SBSP. The party has influence in more than 150 seats of Purvanchal. There is deep penetration in the assembly seats of Varanasi division, Devipatan division, Gorakhpur division, Azamgarh division of the state. SBSP has stronghold on sub-castes like Bansi, Ark, Arkvanshi, Kharwar, Kashyap, Pal, Prajapati…”
What do experts say
According to experts, the answer to the recent exodus is hidden in the history of both sides.
Political commentator and veteran journalist Ratan Mani Lal told News18, “Let me take you back in history, when BSP was in its infancy, who were the people who joined BSP on the call of late Kanshi Ram? They were the ones who neither wanted to forge an alliance with the Congress or the BJP nor were ready to accept the dominance of Yadavs in the SP. For him, the BSP was an option to challenge Mulayam first and then the BJP and the Congress.
The SP and BSP came together to form the government, but after the infamous guest house incident of 1995, the two became bitter enemies. “Now after a gap of more than almost 20 years, BSP is nowhere and certainly no substitute for BJP, Congress or even SP. So, what will the people active in BSP do now?
Manilal pointed out that the Mulayam Yadav-led SP did not accept Dalits and the most backward, but Akhilesh’s SP is a reformed version of his father. “Akhilesh being a more pragmatic politician feels that he has to encourage and appeal to different castes in the state to stay in power. Therefore, for BSP leaders, SP emerges as a natural alternative.
There have been several rifts with BSP leaders, accusing the leadership of lack of engagement. The churn started last year during the Rajya Sabha elections when five MLAs met Akhilesh alleging that their support to the BSP candidate was fake.
Prominent leaders who have either left or been expelled from the BSP since 2016 have accused the leadership of extortion and arrogance as the main reasons for their departure. These complaints escalated after the BSP broke its pact with the SP after the alliance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
With the recent exodus, senior BSP leader and Mayawati’s trusted aide Satish Chandra Mishra has emerged as a thorn in the flesh of the 11 party MLAs who were sacked by her over the past two years, with many lashing out at Mishra. He was accused of creating differences and misleading them.
Mishra has been a trusted ally of Mayawati for years and was the key to reaching out to the Brahmins who brought the BSP to power in 2007 with 206 seats out of 403. Since then, the party’s vote share has fallen from 30% in 2012 to 80 seats (25%) and 19 seats (22%) in the 2017 assembly elections.
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