If the US invasion of Afghanistan intensified US intervention in the Middle East, its exit from the country also signals a quick decline from a region that has long served as a center of political tension. Dramatic scenes in Afghanistan have sounded alarm bells across the Middle East, which hastily destroyed the economic and political system that was built to counter or rest on a large US presence in the region.
With a laser focus on China, Biden’s administration has made it clear to US regional allies that they should no longer rely on the US for their security needs. States have to defend themselves. For the Middle East, it changes everything.
“The Gulf is on the verge of massive security and military changes, perhaps the biggest since 1971, when the US took responsibility for its own security and turned it into the ‘American Gulf’ in a strategic sense,” wrote the Emirati professor, who Abu Dhabi is believed to be close to Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed. “It may not be the same during the next five decades.”
The modern Middle East – whose state borders were carved out by Western colonial powers and where American interests in the oil-rich region had long served as the focal point of regional geopolitics – are barely perceptible. What does a minimalist western look look like.
In his first news conference since becoming Iran’s new president in June, staunch Ibrahim Raisi indicated he was keen to reopen embassies in the Saudi and Iranian capitals. The two countries have held several rounds of talks since early 2021 in an effort to defuse decades of tension.
Other regional rivalries are also showing signs of softening. The UAE has held high-level talks with Turkey and Qatar, which it has long accused of supporting terrorism. Saudi Arabia has also made similar proposals.
Last weekend in Baghdad, a regional summit also appeared to send complex signals about the region’s future. A meeting during the event between Tehran’s newly-appointed Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdullahian and UAE Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid was the highest-level meeting between the two countries in years.
But Amir-Abdullahian apparently did not meet his Saudi counterpart, who was also present at the summit. Instead, he went out of his way to avoid her. In a breach of diplomatic protocol, Iranian top diplomats pose with the country’s leaders during a group photo. His assigned position was next to that of the Saudi top diplomat along with other foreign ministers.
“When was the last time a regional level conference was held? [The Baghdad conference] Shows what is happening in the area. There were no Americans there, ”Iran expert and editor of Amvaz. Media Mohammed Ali Shabani told CNN. “The empire is gone. He is gone.”
At breakneck speed, the area has seen local actors try to fill American shoes. Sometimes it is literal. Images of Taliban fighters in US military gear inspecting aircraft hangars shocked people around the world. What an extremist group with access to some of the world’s best weapons will do is not yet clear. And the wider field is on the edge of its seat as those surreal scenes shine on its screen.
This has already manifested itself in parts of the Arab world, such as in Tunisia, where there was no popular opposition to President Kais Saied’s sweeping power grab last month to curb corruption and mismanagement. In beleaguered Lebanon, which is rapidly turning into anarchy, many on the country’s streets openly call for a military dictatorship.
“We are going to move less towards ideology and more towards good governance,” Shabani said. “This means that if it is accompanied by prosperity there is more tolerance to authoritarian regimes. But if it is not accompanied by prosperity we are going to see worse.”
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