Form of words:
PRhyme minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was lucky enough to emerge from a drone attack on his residence on Sunday morning with a bandage-covered mild cut on his left wrist for his televised speech after the attack. But, despite his calm-and-carry-on appeal, Kadhimi cannot hide the Iraqi political body’s serious injury.
Nor should he try.
Since his appointment in May 2020, the prime minister has sought to quell Iran-backed Shiite militias, which are sabotaging Iraq’s fragile democratic system. Now, he must face him and his masters in Tehran.
The brazen attempt at his life justifies Kadimi to order a long-running crackdown on the militia. There can be little doubt that the attack was the handiwork of a cat-claw in Iran: of the many armed groups operating in Iraq, they alone have access to the drones, which are being used by the Islamic Republic to spread its wings across the Arab world from Lebanon to Yemen. Proxies are supplied. .
In Iraq, Shia militias have used drones supplied by Iran to strike military bases housing US personnel. They have also launched deep drone strikes into Saudi Arabia from Iraqi sites. But the prime minister, prepared to oppose Tehran, has done little to investigate the groups responsible for these attacks, and to condemn their suppliers.
If Kadhimi can now muster up the courage to summon the culprits and their controllers, he can rely on a powerful political weapon he has so far lacked: the support of his countrymen.
Iraqis have long grown tired of Iran’s deadly interference and are urging their political leadership to step back from Tehran’s proxies – groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, Assab Ahl al-Haq and the Badr Organization – that regularly terrorize civilians. do, extort money from businesses and murder rights activists. . Kadhimi’s failure to curb his influence has contributed to a growing sense of despair among ordinary Iraqis, which was reflected in poor turnout in last month’s general election.
There is also despair within the Iraqi military, which is in danger of being ousted by the militias. And in other Arab capitals – and indeed in Washington – there is growing concern that Tehran is using these groups to call all the shots in Baghdad.
A shrewd politician may be able to turn despair, frustration and anxiety into a concerted effort against its source. For Kadimi, there is an additional incentive: the assassination attempt shows that the militias are no longer satisfied with his bowing down and want to get him out of the way.
Following the inconclusive results of the elections, Iran-backed groups are trying to claw their way to power. He has questioned the legitimacy of the vote and clashed with security forces outside Baghdad’s Green Zone.
Kadimi, who himself did not run for election, is hoping that being the candidate is least likely to offend the most parties. The militias know this, and apparently believe that removing them from the equation will improve their chances of getting their own man in their seat.
Failing that, a drone strike could have the opposite effect, undermining Kadimi’s credentials as a compromise candidate. After all, if the country’s most hateful organizations are determined to eliminate him, other parties may be inclined to rally for his cause.
The Prime Minister will also need help from abroad. It would take an international effort to pressure Tehran to rein in its Iraqi proxies. The fact that Iran’s national security chief, Ali Shamkhani, felt compelled to deny responsibility for the assassination attempt, shows that the regime he represents feels the least amount of embarrassment, which other Gives countries something to work for.
The Islamic republic is eager to continue its recent discussions – brokerage, as by Kadhimi – with its traditional enemies. The Arabs now have the opportunity to pressure Iranians to curb their surrogates or at least stand back while the Iraqi military operates.
If the prime minister can get enough national and international support, there is a chance that he may be able to face the militia without firing a shot. More likely, there will be blood: the militias have Iranian weapons and training, after all. But the Iraqi army is able to defeat them while demonstrating their fighting skills against the Islamic State. It also has Western weapons and training.
A confrontation is inevitable. Kadimi’s hand can never be stronger than when he is still bound by the effort of his life. –bloomberg
read also: A look back at 10 years of bloody conflict as Syria begins to normalize relations with neighbors
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