Janata Dal (United) office in Patna deserted. Photo Credit: PTI
The three years between now and 2025 could see the finale in a series of battles being fought between Mandal and Hindutva in the Hindi heartland. If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeats the combined forces of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Janata Dal (United) in the next Lok Sabha and assembly elections, we may see further fragmentation of Mandal forces and Hindutva consolidation. In the past decade, we have already seen this process unfold in Uttar Pradesh without any challenge.
Looking at the caste arithmetic, the Mandal side looks very strong in Bihar. The RJD-JD(U) alliance (Yadavs, Kurmis and Muslims) has a social base of 35%-40%; It is around 15% for the BJP (upper castes). In other words, to form a winning coalition, the BJP needs to win over a clear majority of the swing blocks of Dalits and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, or Non-Eminent Other Backward Classes). Even in the 2015 elections, when the BJP alliance was against a similar MGB ( grand alliance) alliance, the saffron alliance won over a small majority of EBCs and a plurality of Dalits. Yet, the edge the BJP alliance gained among these sections was not the kind of overwhelming support they had hoped for to offset the structural advantage of the MGB’s superior social base. The MGB widened the 8% vote-share gap with the BJP, with two-thirds of its support among Yadavs, Kurmis and Muslims.
coalition has decreased
Therefore, a central question that could decide the political fate of Bihar is whether this Mandal social base will hold for the next few years. The Kurhani by-election (on 5 December in Bihar) provided us with the first real electoral test of this question – and the MGB failed. The BJP had won the Gopalganj seat for the fifth time in a row in the bypolls held last month, but had won Kurhani only once in 2015. The seat has a Kushwaha (half of the larger Kurmi-Kushwaha caste) population. Apart from a sizeable presence of Muslims and Yadavs, with whose support the RJD won the seat in the last election. The JD(U) was contesting the election this time, in its first encounter with its former partner since the BJP-JD(U) split. Both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav had campaigned by making it a ‘prestige fight’, yet they could not prevent the BJP from winning, giving the first signs of doubt about the chemistry between their social bases.
It should be noted that the Yadavs and Kurmis are competing dominant agricultural castes, who have largely been on opposite political camps for the past three decades (with the exception of 2015). According to local journalists in Kurhani, despite Tejashwi Yadav’s emotional pitch to the voters regarding his father’s health, Yadav remained cold towards the JD(U) candidate. Of course, caste chemistry in bypolls can play a role in reversals in state or national elections, where larger ideological narratives are diminished if not subordinated to local competition. Yet, it is safe to say that the echo of Kurhani will not help in bridging the trust-deficit between Kurmis and Yadavs.
Even after MGB’s 2015 victory, There were whispers from the JD(U) that the RJD had secured the bulk of the seats in the alliance due to an unbalanced transfer of votes among the constituents of the alliance. Survey data from the 2015 election (CSDS-Lokniti) partially corroborates that claim: while Kurmis voted equally for JD(U) candidates and RJD candidates (67% and 69%, respectively), Yadavs There was a significant difference in the votes. for JD(U) candidates and RJD candidates (60% and 74% respectively). Kurhani, incidentally, was one of the seats in 2015 where the JD(U)’s Kurmi block candidate (Manoj Singh Kushwaha, who fell short this time too) lost to the BJP despite the constituency’s favorable social arithmetic . However, RJD’s relatively better performance than JD(U) in that election was also due to better mobilization of EBCs and Dalits by RJD, according to the same survey.
Impact on the politics of Bihar
In the emerging politics of Bihar, the importance of Kurhani lies not only in the result but also in its outcome. At the center of this was Upendra Singh Kushwaha, a prominent Kushwaha leader who joined the JD(U) last year and was immediately appointed chairman of the party’s parliamentary board. After by-election defeatMr Kushwaha urged his party to work “as per the wishes and expectations of the people” instead of imposing its vision on the people. It was received in political circles as he was trying to attribute the Kurhani loss to an alliance with the RJD or to prohibition, Nitish Kumar’s signature policy, the effectiveness of which was questioned by Mr. Kushwaha.
Until 2013, when Mr. Kushwaha broke away from the JD(U) and formed his own Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), he was considered a possible successor to Nitish Kumar in the party. The RLSP immediately allied with the BJP and threatened to break the large Kurmi block created by Nitish Kumar (4% Kurmis and 8% Kushwaha mixed together in a single caste mix). In Bihar, it is known as ‘Lav-Kush combination’, a reference to the two sons of Lord Rama. Mr. Kushwaha’s return to the JD(U) was said to mark the ultimate failure of the RLSP’s project to distance Kushwaha from Nitish Kumar (he is a Kurmi).
Whether Mr Kushwaha’s uneasiness represents a healthy round of dissension within the party or a threat to the JD(U)’s social alliance or even the party’s unity is still unclear. One may recall that JD(U) leaders interpreted the Shiv Sena split in Maharashtra as a validation of its decision to break away from the BJP, Nitish Kumar’s wisdom in thwarting the ‘Eknath Shinde’ plan in Bihar was praised.
kurmi vote
It can be argued that the greater threat to the MGB’s social coalition comes from a split in the Kurmi vote rather than the alienation of the Yadavs. In 2014, where JD(U) and RJD fought separately, the Modi wave split JD(U)’s core base of Kurmi-Kushwaha, leaving Nitish Kumar’s party with fewer seats than Mr. Kushwaha’s RLSP Even though the RJD largely held onto the Yadavs.
The JD(U) appears alive to the threat, rebranding Nitish Kumar more openly as a leader of the Kurmis, planning to field Mr Kumar from Kurmi-dominated Mirzapur or Phulpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh in 2024 Looking at the statements pointing out. This marks a significant departure from JD(U)’s earlier statements of ‘Bihari pride’ and caste-agnostic development.
There are likely to be more such ideological gimmicks from all parties trying to survive in the new and uncertain political environment. Kurhani’s big message is that the MGB’s mega social alliance may be formidable but there are enough contradictions within it to make it defeatable.
Asim Ali is a political researcher and columnist