TeaThe key variable that helps explain the chaotic sequence of events in Rajasthan is the authority of the Congress high command. The high command is somewhat misunderstood in media circles, but when it comes to the Congress, it represents a dynamic balance of power, nationally and nationally, between the Gandhi family (and its troupe) and the party’s senior leadership. does. state level.
This balance of power has turned against the Congress high command for two reasons: one, the Gandhi family can no longer win elections for the party; And second, its ability to patronize has diminished as it can no longer accommodate aspiring leaders in the central government.
Sonia Gandhi understood the importance of these fundamental changes and therefore adopted a consensual, status quo approach to party management. In three years after Rajiv Gandhi took over the reins of the party and the government Changed Twelve times Congress Chief Minister. Once every three months, this turnover rate was higher than in the imperial Indira era. By comparison, Sonia Gandhi has forced only two chief ministers in two decades: Ashok Chavan (in 2010) and Amarinder Singh (in 2021).
Despite the apology, Ashok Gehlot is likely to become the third deposed chief minister. Their rebellion represents perhaps the most serious challenge to the authority of the high command in the entirety of the Sonia era (even more so than the G23 episode).
Authority, a formal system of power, is about perception; And the truest measure of authority is how one is seen to react when faced with a challenge. If the high command is seen to be implemented at no cost, it will run the risk of turning a temporary loss into a permanent loss of power. If for all intents and purposes regional satraps are allowed to walk around it, it no longer ceases to be high command.
After Gehlot is out of the presidential race, we can outline two plausible scenarios of how the Rajasthan impasse might be resolved.
Read also: Ashok Gehlot: The ‘magicians’ who played magic for Congress for decades now face an uncertain road
Ashok Gehlot resigns, CM sets consensus (probable scenario)
We say this is the likely scenario because here both sides meet their core interests: the high command gets to retain its authority, while Ashok Gehlot gets to maintain control over the choice of his successor and Sachin Pilot off the field. manages to keep.
There have been indications from both sides on the desirability of this agreement. In his press conference after meeting Sonia Gandhi, Gehlot left the election of the future CM to the discretion of the Congress President. In the meeting, he only insisted that putting Sachin Pilot on the throne would break the government (leaving open the possibility of another leader’s succession). Meanwhile, the high command takes precautions to save Gehlot from the disciplinary trap, charging only his Hatcher men, thus giving them room to move towards a settlement.
If this scenario turns into reality, it begs a simple question: why can’t such a direct settlement be done behind closed doors, and why is it needed. game of Thrones The style saga running all over the national media?
Both sides, perhaps, anticipated their negotiating hand, as the balance of power between the Congress high command and its senior leadership has been in an unprecedented state.
The mistake of the Gandhi family was in denying Ashok Gehlot the right to influence the choice of his successor. Both Sonia and Rahul had reportedly told Gehlot that they need not worry about the choice of the future CM. He may point to the long-standing tradition of the Congress, where such decisions are entirely in the hands of the high command. Nevertheless, this was an unfair position in the light of the prevailing reality. Gehlot is one of only two chief ministers of the Congress. Without acknowledging his demand for continued influence on his home turf, asking him to relinquish that immense power to assume the presidency of a dwindling party unlikely to come to power at the center any time soon, an almost biblical form of loyalty. It was a serious test.
Gehlot’s mistake was in accepting the opportunity to run for the post of Congress President, knowing what it involved. Initially a firm ‘No’ (Ala.) Kamal Nath) would have left him in a much stronger position than he is today. Disobeying the high command in private, however bad, is better than disobeying in public. Yet they were forced to make similar transitions, but they could maintain their impeccable record of loyalty to the high command.
After all, Gehlot’s biggest political capital, over the past four decades, has been closely related to the Congress high command: the Gandhi family and its surrounding congregation. It was this closeness, rather than his personal charisma or vote-catching abilities (both of which are modest), that moved up the organizational ladder. More importantly, it had enabled him to put up an equally formidable (or even more formidable) challenge to the chief minister’s chair for three consecutive terms – Parasram Maderna in 1998, CP Joshi in 2008 and Sachin Pilot in 2018. The rebellion has eroded all that carefully accumulated political capital, although now a compromise may help mend sever ties.
Scenario 2: Gehlot to continue as CM (less likely)
Of course, there is a second plausible scenario where Gehlot refuses to step down from his chair. The high command may then feel constrained to allow him to run through the rest of the term, especially if the only option involves jeopardizing the stability of the government.
This can be regarded as a victory for the Gehlot rebellion, at least on a short-term assessment. He gets another year as chief minister and (equally important) keeps Sachin Pilot out. But in the long run, it decisively moves the high command to the pilot camp. Gehlot will continue to be out of power as he moves towards the end of his term. Especially when the high command administers the reorganization of the state unit (especially the post of PCC chief) away from the stronghold of the Gehlot camp.
Much has been made about the loyalty of party legislators to Gehlot, but we must remember that political loyalty is a transactional value that primarily depends on the patronage expected. In other words, the political calculation of legislators (and indeed all organizational functionaries) is determined less by the soft skills of human management and more by the difficult, variable dynamics of power.
In any case, it is very difficult to see Gehlot returning to power again, with even the remotest chance of a Congress victory. Thus, the moment he vacates his chair, he loses all his political advantage, as the seat of power is once again shifted to the Delhi Durbar. After December 2023, without the post of Congress President, and facing a hostile pilot backed by the high command, Gehlot also has the potential to shape the political life of his son Vaibhav Gehlot (who, all along, was a major bone). might lose. Dispute in his dispute with the pilot).
Therefore, a compromise now (from a position of relative strength) may serve its long-term interests better than putting pressure on a stunned high command at home.
One can also think of a third possible scenario – ousting Gehlot and putting Sachin Pilot on the throne. But that rarely seems to happen. Gehlot’s move has been successful in ensuring that making Pilot the CM will now be treated as an undemocratic charge of the high command on the wishes of the party MLAs. This would be a particularly difficult move to justify at a time when ‘protecting democracy’ is an important component of the Congress’s ideological position, reflected in both the pair’s visit to India and the resumption of the presidential election after a gap of two decades. ,
The Rajasthan crisis is still in a fluid state, and the two key players (Gehlot and the high command) are yet to take the final step. Gehlot, the magician, may have temporarily vanished the authority of the high command, but the political reality is fast retreating to demand its due. Any way this impasse is resolved, it will show us the true measure of the balance of power that is currently under the authority of the Congress high command. This is the new paradigm that will shape the future of Congress far more than any presidential election.
Asim Ali is a political researcher and columnist. He tweeted @AsimAli6. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Choubey)