COP26, a reminder for India to set its net-zero target

1. Tick-Ticking Clock

The conference comes in the immediate backdrop of an alarming report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body. The report in August said the threat of a human-induced climate change disaster is now ‘widespread, rapid and acute’. The IPCC made it abundantly clear that the 2015 Paris Agreement target set in COP21 – which is to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels – was beyond reach. This limit could be exceeded in the next two decades, and the planet is now set to warm 2.5–4 °C by about 2100.

According to a report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in March, India has seen an increase of 0.7 degree Celsius in its surface air temperature during the last 120 years. The ministry’s report said the warmer climate has contributed to localized heavy rains, more frequent droughts and floods, and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the past few decades.

2. Net-Zero of India

A key part of the fight is setting a net-zero target – the year when a country starts absorbing as much carbon as it emits. The US, the European Union and Japan see that year until 2050, and China by 2060. But despite being the fourth largest emitter, India is yet to declare a target. This puts it in the headlines ahead of COP26, where countries are expected to update their Paris goals.

However, India argues along the lines of equality, emphasizing the “polluter pays” principle. Current carbon dioxide levels are the result of decades of accumulation, and India’s historical contribution is far less than that of rich countries. Despite the increase in per capita emissions, India is about 60% behind the global average.

However, there can be time lapses for such arguments. Technological advancements now allow India to adopt cleaner fuels in sectors such as transport and power, while prioritizing efficiency measures in dirty sectors. fuel is inevitable.

3. Costly Inaction

India is already bearing the brunt of a wounded environment. Extreme weather events have become common in the past two decades, and the IPCC report said droughts, heat waves and cyclones will only become more frequent in India in the coming years.

According to an index of 180 countries by German non-profit Germanwatch in 2019, India was the seventh most vulnerable to climate change based on deaths and loss of GDP due to extreme weather events. India lost the maximum number of lives that year due to bad weather.

India is also in its grip due to being home to the largest number of poor in the world. A recent report by the Energy, Environment and Water Council (CEEW) found that more than 75% of India, home to more than 63.8 million people, are extreme climate event hotspots. There were 250 extreme events during 1975–2005, which increased to 310 in a span of only 15 years from 2005.

4. Preliminary Stage

India is committed to three goals for 2030 in Paris: reducing emissions levels per unit of GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels, increasing non-fossil fuel sources to 40% of installed electricity capacity, and 2.5 Creating a carbon sink of -3 billion tons equivalent to carbon dioxide.

India has almost achieved the first two: as of September, non-fossil fuel sources, including large hydro and nuclear, comprised 39.6% of installed capacity, and the intensity of emissions has fallen by 24% since 2005. But there’s a catch. With rising GDP, reduction in emission intensity does not necessarily mean that net emissions are also decreasing. Furthermore, moving from installed capacity to smooth integration of renewable energy into the power grid is a daunting task: only 12% of India’s electricity comes from wind, solar and other renewables, despite 25% generating capacity.

India can claim early success, but it is far from saving the planet. Climate Action Tracker rates India’s actions as “highly inadequate”. No wonder the pressure to declare a net-zero target is mounting from the rest of the world.

5. Looking ahead

However, India may not be in a hurry to declare a net-zero target. It may remind the world of the “general but differentiated” theory. In addition, this process requires consultation with stakeholders and coordination across sectors.

China can’t be a benchmark: its income level is five times that of India, and being so far ahead on the growth curve, its emissions could peak by 2030. For India, assuming 5.6% annual growth, that year may not come before 2040, with the CEEW analysis showing that its net-zero has been pushed to around 2070.

This is true for most of the developing countries falling within the income bracket of India. This is why net zero requires global participation. For a global net zero by 2050, not only must advanced economies get there much earlier, but they must also support developing countries through sustained investment. A new UN report saying the rich world is not funding the fight adequately will be a key discussion point at COP26.