covid is on its way to become just another virus

As someone who has long been fascinated by the detective work that goes into tracing the origins and history of infections, (1) the answer always seemed pretty accurate. Which virus was it? Where and when did this distortion arise? How many other people were getting infected in the same way this year?

Those questions are not much relevant to most general practitioners, as most viruses burn themselves as a backdrop to the endemic infections that spread around the world each year. At some point, with increased immunity from vaccinations, infections and booster shots, COVID-19 will join that club.

Early last year, the world urgently needed to heighten the sense of alarm about the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and view it as an imminent threat, not a more routine infection equivalent to influenza. Right now, however, the vaccinated parts of the planet need to mentally send themselves in the opposite direction. It is time to remind ourselves that, for those who have been vaccinated, COVID-19 is no longer the cavalry of the apocalypse, but is slowly becoming “just a virus”.

This is largely where some countries that are at the forefront of their vaccination programs are reaching. In Singapore, where 81% are fully immunocompromised, the health ministry has begun to prioritize hospitalization figures over infections, as most cases are now relatively benign. Israel is riding a surge in new cases without going back into lockdown for vaccinations, as most infections no longer result in serious illness.

Calls from some quarters to stop publishing daily case totals may be premature for a disease that is still killing thousands a day. At some point, however, when COVID has moved from its current pandemic status to an endemic one, where it fades into the background, we may become equally vague on the number of daily or even annual cases. more likely than we are in the case of influenza.

It’s hard to believe that an infection that has killed more than 4.5 million people could be thought of that way, but through history viruses have flipped between endemic and pandemic status with remarkable frequency.

The “Russian flu” epidemic that engulfed the world in the late 1970s appears to be an unmistakable seasonal flu strain from the 1940s and 1950s, possibly released to the world through a laboratory accident. People over the age of 25, who had been exposed to various types in their childhood, were largely immune. Yellow fever, which shaped America’s history for four centuries through its devastating effects on military forces that lacked immunity, has now largely disappeared from urban areas of the Western Hemisphere, while the A devastating infection remains in Saharan Africa.

A July study in the journal Microbial Biotechnology also argued that a coronavirus strain named HCoV-OC43 may have been responsible for the 1889 outbreak, also known as the Russian flu, arguably the first true modern global pandemic. . That particular strain now stands out as one of the main causes of the common cold, a classic example of an endemic infection that doctors safely dismiss.

We are not at that level yet. Fully vaccinated, I feel relatively optimistic about the possibility that at some point in the coming years I will also be exposed to COVID-19. Still, the fully vaccinated friend who recently moved from Sydney to New York and caught the virus within weeks of arrival suffered a vicious infection that spread to their uninfected former son. That’s why keep treating this disease with respect, at least until everyone has had a chance to be vaccinated and we have a clear understanding of how long protection against serious infections lasts.

This terrible crisis will always be with us, but in a milder, less disturbing form. After the trauma of the past two years, it’s hard to believe that we’ll ever look at that prospect with equanimity—but that’s what ultimately should happen. The moment we have defeated COVID will not be when we eradicate it from the human population, but when we reach the level of vaccination and natural immunity where we have no reason to fear it. That moment will come – and when it does, this dreadful infection will still be another virus.

David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities as well as industrial and consumer companies. He has been a reporter for Bloomberg News, Dow Jones, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and The Guardian.