Though voters were disillusioned, the space of a divided opposition helped the BJP win
Though voters were disillusioned, the space of a divided opposition helped the BJP win
A party that returned to power in Uttar Pradesh after more than three decades, before the elections, there were enough signs of disenchantment with the BJP government on issues such as farmers’ agitation, unemployment, inflation, stray cattle. The problem, and handling of COVID-19. Yet the BJP did not lose power. One reason for this appears to be that the SP is unable to strengthen the anti-incumbency sentiment in the same way that the BJP strengthened the pro-incumbency sentiment. This happened because of the divided space of the opposition.
The post-election survey found that the desire to change the state government was high. This was just five points short of what the government wanted to see a return to. However, only two-thirds of these change-seekers voted for the SP alliance. The rest voted for opposition parties outside the SP alliance. While two-thirds is undoubtedly a high figure, it was not sufficient in this context.
The SP also could not convince enough fence-sitters. A large part (17%) were uncertain or silent on whether the government should back down. Only two-fifths of them voted for the SP alliance while almost a quarter voted for the BJP. The rest voted for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and other parties. More than half of these fencers were dissatisfied with the chief minister, the prime minister, or both. The SP got only half their support.
Before the election, there was talk of some disgruntled upper caste voters thinking of going to the Congress. But our survey found that this did not happen. Only 1% of the previous BJP voters shifted to the Congress (Table 2). In contrast, the Congress lost one-fifth of its old supporters to the BJP and nearly a third to the SP.
Furthermore, BSP chief Mayawati was not very vocal in her election campaign, and maintained a low profile. In 2017, Dalit voters who switched from BSP to BJP again voted for BJP in large numbers. Many of them could have switched to BSP if they thought the party was a strong contender for power. Even the Jatavs, who are the main voters of the BSP, shifted to the BJP in large numbers.