The recovery in the economy comes on a contraction of 6.6 per cent GDP during 2020-21 due to the pandemic and the resultant lockdown imposed to contain the spread of the deadly coronavirus. In FY2011, the economy contracted for the first time in 40 years.
For the fourth quarter (Q4) ended March 2022, GDP growth slipped to 4.1 per cent, data released by the government showed on Tuesday.
The real GDP at constant prices (2011-12) is projected to achieve a level of Rs 147.36 lakh crore in FY 2012, as against the first revised estimate of Rs 135.58 lakh crore for FY 2011, an official release said. .
The GDP growth rate in the previous quarter was 5.4 per cent, compared to 20.1 per cent in the first quarter. The government revised the GDP data for the second quarter from 8.5 per cent to 8.4 per cent.
Quick edit: Components of GDP show private consumption is weak and in need of financial support
The second revised estimates of GDP released by the Center in February had projected India’s economy to grow at 8.9 per cent in FY22.
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament in February had projected GDP growth for the current fiscal year (2022-23) to be between 8 – 8.5 per cent.
The Gross Value Added (GVA) growth during the fiscal year ended March 2022 stood at 8.1 per cent, as against the contraction at 4.8 per cent in the previous year.
According to NSO data, per capita income (based on net national income) during 2021-22 was Rs 1.5 lakh per annum at current prices, showing a growth of 18.3 per cent from Rs 1,26,855 in 2020-21.
However, at constant prices, the per capita annual income is Rs 91,481, up 7.5 per cent from Rs 85,110 in FY15.
Gross fixed capital formation in 2021-22 was estimated at Rs 47.84 lakh crore, as against Rs 41.31 lakh crore in the previous year.
slow quarterly growth
The economy’s near-term prospects have been darkened by a pick-up in retail inflation, which hit an eight-year high of 7.8 per cent in April.
The surge in energy and commodity prices after the Ukraine crisis is also putting pressure on economic activity.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased the benchmark repo rate by 40 basis points in an unscheduled meeting earlier this month.
In addition, the surge in Omicron cases in December and January had alerted people as partial restrictions were rolled back in some states.
“Supply crunch, global spillovers of crude oil shocks and high input costs thwarted India’s growth momentum in Q4. The impact of these factors was widely observed in high frequency mining, manufacturing and construction indicators,” said Vivek Rathi, Director – Research at Knight Frank India.
The data showed manufacturing output declined 0.2 per cent year-on-year in the three months ending March, compared to a 0.3 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.
India’s fourth quarter growth was slower than China’s as it posted economic growth of 4.8 per cent in the first three months of 2022. However, it was slower than the US which expanded at 3.6 percent.
Sector-Wise Performance
The agriculture sector – which was the only silver lining in FY2011 – slowed to 3 per cent in FY12, compared to 3.3 per cent last year.
Apart from this, all other sectors experienced strong economic growth in the current fiscal.
The mining and quarrying sector grew by 11.5 per cent in FY 2012 as compared to 8.6 per cent in FY 2011.
Similarly, manufacturing grew at a healthy rate of 9.9 per cent as compared to -0.6 per cent last year.
Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services segment grew by 7.5 percent during 2021-22. The segment had declined by 3.6 per cent in the last financial year.
GVA growth in the services sector – trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting related services – during 2021-22 stood at 11.1 per cent, as against 20.2 per cent in the previous year.
Financial, real estate and professional services grew 4.2 percent in the year, up from 2.2 percent earlier.
Public administration, defense and other services registered a growth of 12.6 per cent in 2020-21 as against (-)5.5 per cent.