A few days ago too, Cyrus Mistry and Jehangir Pandole were killed in a horrific car accident. This tragedy made many people think about road safety measures. Sadly, neither Mistry nor Pandole was wearing a safety belt in the back seat.
In this column, I will give you some statistics about these two events. Maybe they’ll give them some context and give you something to think about.
If you think about it, India becoming the fifth largest economy in the world was almost inevitable. Why so? Because it is a very big country. As more and more of its citizens become more and more financially active, its economy will naturally grow. After all, the number of people living and working within our borders means that we will outnumber most other countries, especially in countries with far fewer people than us.
Consider: there are 67.2 million people in the UK. India is about 1.4 billion – 20 times bigger. Whatever the reason—colonialism, industrialization, etc.—the UK economy started a yawn on us in 1947. Seventy-five years later, that lead was reduced to zero, as it had to be. In roughly the same drastic way, we will likely overtake Germany (population: 83 million) and Japan (126 million) relatively soon. What about China and America? Well, China has almost the same population as ours, and the economies of those countries are about five (China) and seven (US) times bigger than ours. So his leadership will last for a long time.
But these references to population and economy raise a complex question. If we compare the economies of countries by their overall size, should we also compare them per capita? After all, for the average citizen, per capita income is the measure that is relevant. The life of the average citizen is much more immediately shaped by his income than by the overall state of his country’s economy.
For this column, divide GDP by population to arrive at per capita income. In this way, India’s per capita income is just over $2,000. That’s about 20 times that of the UK, at about $40,000. Looked at this way, we have not left the UK behind at all.
So which of these comparisons is “correct”? Both, actually. India’s economy is definitely growing and is now bigger than that of the UK. This is a milestone to savor. Still, I’ll bet the average Indian sees himself, and most of his fellow citizens, far less affluent than the average UK resident. The related per capita income tells the latter story.
Now let’s turn to the accident. The two deaths sparked a lot of comments about road design, overspeeding and more, and of course, the need to use those rear seat safety belts. That last one is important. You’ve seen videos that show the effects of an accident on mannequins without a belt behind them. You’ve seen statistics that show that using a belt dramatically reduces your chances of dying. All eye-openers, but for now, let’s focus on some other stats.
When we rank countries not on the basis of their economy but by the number of deaths in road accidents, India is not in fifth or third place. It’s almost at the top of the stack. according to people estimated our world in dataTraffic on our roads kills about 200,000 people annually. It is second only to China, where the toll is around 250,000. In this morbid race, no other country comes close to our Asian giants; In fact, we have overtaken all of Africa, the Americas and all of Europe. Brazil (45,000), the US (41,000) and Indonesia (37,000) are the remaining top five countries.
Ah, but what about the per capita road death numbers, like the economy above? Divide those tolls by the population of each country, to find that for every million residents, Brazil loses about 211 people to traffic accidents, China 179, India 145, Indonesia 135 and the US 124. So among these five big countries, Brazil tops, pushing India to third place.
Do the per capita numbers force you to look at accident tolls differently? But wait: Other ways of looking at them can tell different stories. (For the rest of this article, I’ll stick with the US, China, and India.)
Take, for example, the number of traffic accidents in each country: the US is a runaway world leader, with approximately 2.2 million accidents occurring annually. India’s count is around 500,000 and China’s is around 212,000. (Data from the International Road Federation in Geneva.) Divide the death toll by these numbers, and they suggest that accidents vary widely, and surprisingly, how fatal they are. For example, someone dies in every 50th accident in America, but every second in India and every one in China.
If you find it difficult to swallow, it probably is. What these figures can really suggest is that many accidents in India and China are not reported to the authorities; Even what Indian minors might consider “fender-benders” adds to the list of American accidents.
What if we factor in vehicle ownership? China leads the world with 307 million motor vehicles. The second and third places are followed by the US and India with 291 million and 89 million respectively. Do the arithmetic to find that for every one million vehicles, there are 141 accidents in the US. China, 814 deaths. India, 2,247.
(Also: remember that these ownership figures do not account for two-wheelers, which are almost three times higher than other motor vehicles in India. I’ll leave the resulting arithmetic to you.)
Sobering, that 2,247? That’s what statistics can do. Shredded in a way, they appear reassuring and worth celebrating. Another chopped, sobering one. take your pick. But whatever you do, please buckle up.
Dilip D’Souza, once a computer scientist, now lives in Mumbai and writes for his dinner. His Twitter handle is @DeathEndsFun.
catch all business News, market news, today’s fresh news events and breaking news Updates on Live Mint. download mint news app To get daily market updates.