TeaThe winners and losers of Chinese politics were recently chosen and the conclusion of the Beidahe Conclave has sparked rumors about who is being promoted.
We can only speculate about what happened at the Beidaihe Conclave this year. The next rung of the top leadership was prospectively selected and approved even before the conclave began.
“There are no formal agendas or events, and leaders just come for a break,” Told to a Chinese party official south china morning post on condition of anonymity.
The declining importance of the Beidaihe Conference can be attributed to Xi’s political management.
In the last two decades, party leaders may get promoted Predicted By analyzing the work experience and age of the candidate. But the 19th Party Congress and the rise of President Xi Jinping have made that formula unreliable. Potential candidates have received hefty promotions for their unwavering loyalty to Xi.
“Xi has made significant changes in the selection of the pool of delegates and senior leaders. These changes reversed earlier conventions designed to promote greater transparency and open competition in favor of Xi. wrote Christopher K. Johnson.
Xi, during the last party congress in 2017 by not identifying his successor or next premier, and instead promoting his allies in violation of those ‘norms’, unsettled those controlling promotions to the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC). The ‘norms’ have been retained. ,
Two kinds of speculations are being made. The first is that the PBSC can be increased from the existing seven to nine members, and second that the PBSC can shrink For the five main members – by slightly adjusting the positions. The size of PBSC in 2012 was 18. had shrunk from nine to seven duringth Party Congress. In 2002, the PBSC was increased to nine when China faced a complex domestic and international environment.
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premiership target
One name tops many China watchers’ lists for publicity – Hu Chunhua. Hu is likely to be elected to the premiership to replace Li Keqiang. Hu is considered by many to be an efficient administrator.
Hu is from the rival faction, often referred to as “league factionBecause many members of this group began their political careers in the Communist Youth League (CYL).
Over the years an unspoken consensus has emerged that divides power between the Secretary-General and the Prime Minister. The CCP General Secretary – currently President Xi – came from the elite coalition and Premier of the League faction, sometimes referred to as tuanpai, The ‘elite coalition’ is a group of children from princely states or party elites who have held the top power ranks – Xi being one of them.
If Hu Le succeeds Keqiang to take over as prime minister, it would mean that the power bargain, which has kept the balance of power at the top of the party, is still in the works. And, if a different candidate becomes the head, who is close to Xi, it would indicate that Xi has broken that consensus and further consolidated his control of power by appointing someone of his choice.
Xi has in the past targeted CYL to downplay the group’s influence on elite Chinese politics.
hu chunhua graduated In 1983 from Peking University and started working in the organization department of Tibet Autonomous Region Committee of CYL.
Hu’s ascent will have some effect on India. Hu has worked in Tibet for most of his life.
Thereafter, Hu continued to rise to the party ranks in Tibet. Between 2003–5, Hu served as deputy secretary of the Party Committee of the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Hu has been meticulous related Worked with CYL throughout his career and between 2006-8 as First Secretary of the Secretariat of the Communist Youth League Central Committee. Hu’s leading role in CYL pits him against the kinds of personalities and friends Xi has promoted under him.
Hu Chunhua wrote an article on July 27 title Try to create a new situation of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization, guided by Secretary-General Xi Jinping’s important statement on the “three rural” work, in which he mentioned Xi’s name more than 50 times.
Hu Chunhua has played a major role in bilateral relations with India. In 2016, President Pranab Mukherjee met Hu Chunhua, who was then Guangdong’s party secretary.
Hu has played an important role in Xi’s poverty alleviation and agricultural modernization program. Despite leaving Tibet in 2006, Hu has maintained his association with Tibet.
“In Tibet, Hu learned about the employment and income of people lifted out of poverty, agricultural development with local facilities, building rural infrastructure, and public services,” Xinhua said. informed of About Hu’s inspection tour of Tibet in July this year.
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other claimants
The other person likely to be promoted and inducted into the standing committee is Chen Minor, who is currently serving as Chongqing’s party secretary.
Chen has held key positions such as governor of Guizhou province and party secretary. There has been speculation that Chen may take over if Wang Huning vacates Wang Huning’s current position as Central Secretariat. Chen has been described as a protégé of Xi from his time as director of the propaganda department in Zhejiang, where Xi was party secretary from 2002–2007. chain is called assisted During his time in Zhejiang, Xi contributed to his rise by creating his weekly column for the party newspaper. Zhejiang Daily.
Chen has a keen interest in propaganda and the party’s political theory, which makes him an ideal candidate to replace Wang Huning.
Another candidate with potential for promotion is Li Xi, who may be inducted into PBSC.
Currently, Li heads the prosperous province of Guangdong as party secretary. Li began his career in the propaganda department of Gansu province after graduating in Chinese language and literature from Northwest Normal University.
Li’s career is an example of the personalities promoted under Xi’s leadership. Li cemented his destiny to enter national politics during his time in Shanghai and as a member of the Shaanxi faction. Li developed relations with Xi in the mid-1980s, when Xi was working as a personal assistant to Li Ziqi, who was then Gansu’s party secretary. Chinese state media have written extensively about Li’s relationship with Xi, and his promotion in recent years points to an upcoming promotion to the former.
Li may be promoted to the first vice-chairman of the State Council or to the Central Secretariat secretary seat currently held by Wang Huning. Adding to the confusion about top leadership positions is the fate of Wang Huning and Zhao Leizhi, both Xi associates and under retirement age. Chen Min’er and Li Xi could either replace Wang Huning and Zhao Leizhi or all four leaders could become part of the expanded PBSC.
Other candidates currently being promoted to the Politburo are Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang and Ding Xuexiang. Despite the mismanagement of the COVID-19 response in Shanghai, Xi’s aide Li Qiang managed to avoid any disciplinary action that is likely to be escalated.
Ding Xuexiang, who assisted Xi as his secretary in Shanghai in 2006–7, currently serves as director of the general office.
Apart from Hu Chunhua, who is not a clear ally of Xi, all others who will likely be promoted are close allies of Xi. This decline will further transform Chinese politics into Xi’s image.
The author is a columnist and freelance journalist. He was previously a Chinese media reporter for the BBC World Service. He tweeted @aadilbrar. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Choubey)