2022 was a tumultuous year in Pakistan even by the standards of its turbulent political history. It faced a multicrisis – multiple crises that combined to reinforce each other and create a composite challenge to deal with any one crisis. A political crisis, often with constitutional implications, raged throughout the year, a looming economic crisis, the worst climate-induced floods in the country’s history tested national resilience, and a resurgence of terrorist violence revived threats to Pakistan’s security. Gave.
ousting the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan A parliamentary vote of no confidence in April trained a chain of events that plunged the country into a state of permanent crisis. Several aspects of the crisis set it apart from the country’s tumultuous past. Never before has a Prime Minister been removed by a vote of no confidence. The crisis engulfed all the country’s institutions – the Supreme Court, the Parliament, the Presidency, the Punjab Assembly, the ECP, as well as the army, despite its claim to stay away from the political fray. Furthermore, there were few parallels in the country’s history of disruptions that delayed the transfer of power.
Unwilling to accept the loss of power, Khan launched a series of actions first to defy and then to respond to the no-confidence move. He concocted a story of a foreign conspiracy to explain his dismissal, openly accusing the army leadership of being part of the plot. Although he never produced any evidence to support his allegation – and later backtracked on it – it found ready believers among his loyal political base. aimed at delegitimizing their opponents, especially as military spokesmen flatly backtracked dismissed this narrative as false, As the meeting of the National Security Committee took place.
Khan’s ouster opened a new, uncertain and unstable phase in the politics of Pakistan. Led by the PML-N, the 13-party PDM coalition that took power made a slow and uncertain start, as it initially had to overcome obstacles in the way of a smooth transition. Forming the largest coalition cabinet in the country’s history also took time and underscored the difficulties of finding compromises between different parties. Nevertheless, Khan’s fierce opposition kept the coalition together, even though some constituents required high maintenance from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who was obliged to consult constantly with Mian Nawaz Sharif in London.
The politics of confrontation remained the pervasive reality of 2022. Imran Khan tried throughout the year to pressure the government to hold immediate general elections. But the PDM insisted on continuing in office till the end of its term in Parliament in August 2023. Punjab, the country’s largest province and political stronghold, is increasingly becoming the arena of power struggle. The PTI and its ally, the PML-Q, led by Pervez Elahi, were able to gain control of the government after Hamza Sharif’s brief tenure. But the province remained unstable with governance paralyzed by a standoff between Lahore and Islamabad. At the end of the year, the two sides were locked in a fierce battle – the PTI to dissolve the provincial assembly and the PDM alliance to prevent it from political maneuvering.
The continued political confrontation indicated a breakdown of politics in 2022. Amid rising tensions, political disputes were no longer amenable to political means. Political rivals either resorted to the courts or turned to the military to pursue their political objectives. An opposition-less National Assembly was marginalized and the political system came under increasing pressure. State institutions faced increasing pressure. The High Courts were expected by both sides to decide not only legal and constitutional issues but also political matters. This turned the courts from arbiters of law into arbiters of politics. The army became the subject of repeated criticism by Khan and unprecedented public and media debate. It was accused of not interfering or interfering too much.
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Last year, the economy was a make-and-break issue for the ruling coalition and the country. Deepening polarization and political turmoil compounded the economic challenge with uncertainty casting a long shadow over a worsening public finance crisis. The dire situation urged Sharif to restart the IMF program and seek funds from friendly countries to meet the record current account deficit, meet debt repayments, and attempt to stabilize the precarious macroeconomic situation. . Rising inflation emerged as an even greater political threat to the government than Khan, fueling widespread public discontent.
The country witnessed the worst floods in its history which affected more than 33 million people and caused widespread displacement and destruction. The death toll rose to over 1,200, with extensive damage to crops, homes and infrastructure. Relief and rehabilitation efforts by the authorities were augmented by financial assistance from abroad but it was clear that recovery would require more time and money. At the end of the year, flood victims in many areas faced food shortages and the threat of disease. The disaster placed a heavy financial burden on an already struggling economy.
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The change of finance ministers in the government’s five-month term added further uncertainty to the weak economic situation. As forex reserves dwindled, rupee weakened, exports declined, remittances contracted and debt payments increased, speculation about future sovereign default in the face of huge external obligations intensified. However, government ministers rejected it as dangerous. The situation entered a critical phase when the reserves fell to $5.8 billion. By the end of the year, it was unclear how Pakistan would deal with the economic crisis, especially given the delay in releasing the IMF’s tranche of the bailout programme.
Imran Khan’s announcement The dissolution of the Punjab and KP Assemblies in December added to the political and economic uncertainty and further darkened the outlook for an economy teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. As if this was not enough, the country witnessed a fresh wave of militant violence, with TTP militants carrying out attacks in and outside KP, including the capital. Skirmishes along the Pak-Afghan border and terrorist attacks on security personnel in Balochistan underline the growing security problems along the western border. But this confluence of political, economic and security challenges did little to unify the country’s political leaders. Instead, it left Pakistan negotiating multiple crises in 2023 in an unprecedentedly fractured position.
The author is former Ambassador of Pakistan to the US, UK and the United Nations. Thoughts are personal.
article originally appeared Dawn website.