In the border standoff, a manufactured refugee crisis

Tensions have risen in Eastern Europe and on the Belarusian-Polish border Thousands of asylum seekers attempted to enter Poland, which forms the outer border of the European Union (EU). Belarus is accused of allowing visa-free entry to refugees, especially Kurds, from war-torn West Asia and encouraging their passage to the EU border. Since the EU’s external border constitutes the only line of defense against unwanted migrants, Poland used water cannon and tear gas to repel asylum seekers and, leaving the seriously ill, the border. Violators have been pushed back. In the freezing conditions, about 15 or more refugees have died. This crisis and the escalation of rhetoric between the EU, Poland, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine affect aspects of the foreign and domestic agendas of all these governments.

For Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko, under sanctions by the European Union since last year’s election, when he secured a questionable sixth term, it is a fracas with both the EU and Russia. Belarus has economic and military alliances with Russia, effectively making it the Russian final frontier against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) encroachments. While Belarus is completely dependent on Russia, this does not prevent a client state from proving a difficult partner. North Korea is troublesome to China, Haiti to the United States, and near home are other examples. Mr Lukashenko threatened to block a pipeline transporting Russian gas to the EU via Belarus, a threat increasingly denied by Moscow.

Read also | 230 migrants forcefully cross Belarus border: Poland

focus on the European Union

President Lukashenko refused to invite migrants to Belarus, instead blaming the European Union for closing its borders. He wants to put pressure on the EU with a scenario like the refugee crisis of 2015, when the EU provided funding and non-financial incentives to Turkey and some Libyan warlords to curb migration exodus. Finding these suggestions blocked, he proposed that Germany take 2,000 refugees while another 7,000 would be repatriated, but this was rejected, and most migrants are refusing to go home.

Politicians in Western and Eastern Europe accused Moscow of provoking the crisis amid Russia’s claim to invade Ukraine. This disregards the logic of why Russia would stage a crisis with Germany, the destination of the asylum seekers, and invade Ukraine, when processes are underway to authenticate Nord Stream 2, leaving Ukraine and Belarus European. A pipeline to deliver gas to the union. The argument for inciting Russia to reckless action involving Belarus and Ukraine to derail Nord Stream 2 makes a lot of sense, especially from an American perspective.

After initially declaring that it saw no evidence of Russian involvement, Ukraine changed its course and supported NATO’s claims of an imminent invasion. Russian complaints concern the use of Turkish-made drones in the Donbass breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, and NATO’s provocative activities close to its land and sea borders. The 2015 Minsk Agreement was designed to end conflict in the Donbass through provincial elections, decentralization and the restoration of socio-economic ties between Kiev and the detached self-styled republics, but there has been no constitutional amendment, no elections. No, and Donbass is subject to an economic blockade.

Clearly Moscow has lost hope in Kiev given the Minsk Agreement for substantial regional autonomy. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 2019 decree allowed people of the Donbass to claim Russian citizenship, and the latest Kremlin move to economically integrate the Donbass, Ukraine’s east like Crimea, gradually into a single state. Will change to real Russian territory.

Warsaw’s stance

Poland seems a reluctant victim of Belarus’ strategy, but the refugee crisis is a godsend for Warsaw when both Poland and the EU are embroiled in a bitter dispute over the rule of law after Poland’s constitutional tribunal invalidated certain provisions of the EU treaty. Has happened. Contrary to EU principles, Warsaw promotes ‘traditional values’ which include laws free of homosexuality, an LGBT free zone and a ban on abortion. Poland has banned journalists and NGOs within three kilometers of its border, and has been subject to criticism from human rights groups and the Council of Europe, but tensions have been raised for promoting anti-Russian rhetoric and declaring itself a defender of Europe. Warsaw gives scope for Despite anti-immigrant attacks, it remains a mainstay of far-right politics. The border problem also gives the EU an opportunity to prove its worth to Poland, providing its full support for it.

big issue

The crisis at the Belarus-Poland border is a symptom of a wider refugee problem. In recent months the United States has driven away Haitians, Thailand Burmese, Indian Rohingya and Afghans. More than 25,000 people arrived in Britain by sea this year, prompting British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to flare up against France’s failure to stop refugees, 27 of whom recently drowned.

The migrant crisis is not limited to just a few countries, it has led to wars between India and Pakistan 50 years ago, and requires corrective action at the international level. There are now around 26 million refugees in the world and no country has a credible record on the issue.

Krishnan Srinivasan is an ex foreign Secretary