The campaigning for the high-profile Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023 will come to an end today i.e. May 8 at 5 PM. For the last few days, star campaigners of all the three major political parties – BJP, Congress and JD(S) – have held mega rallies and roadshows in the poll-bound state to woo voters.
Now an opinion poll has shown that the Congress will emerge as the single largest party in the Karnataka elections to be held on May 10. The opinion poll was conducted by India TV-CNX Opinion Poll. According to estimates, Congress is likely to get 105 seats while in power. BJP Can see 85 seats. The opinion poll also predicted that the Janata Dal Secular (S) could win 32 seats while the other two could win.
With just two days left for the election, opinion polls also showed that while the Congress may win the election, the party may not enjoy an absolute majority.
Here are the poll findings:
As per the projects, Congress may get 40.32 per cent seats, while BJP may get 35.5 per cent seats, followed by JD-S with 17.81 per cent seats.
Caste and community-wise, the opinion poll predicts that the Congress may get 78 per cent Muslim votes, Kuruba (75.3 per cent), Lingayat (15.11 per cent), Vokkaliga (17.57 per cent), SC (40.56 per cent), OBC (34.58 percent) ), ST (42.35 percent). In comparison, BJP could get 2.07 per cent Muslim votes, Kuruba (15.14 per cent), Lingayat (75.8 per cent), Vokkaliga (17.39 per cent), SC (39.6 per cent), OBC (51.7 per cent), ST (32.18 per cent). The estimates also suggested that the JD-S could get 56 per cent votes from the Vokkaligas.
Opinion poll projections showed Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah as the people’s first choice for the post of CM with 32.2 per cent votes, while 26.83 per cent preferred Basavaraj Bommai. Other leaders such as former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy (16.37 per cent), BS Yediyurappa (10.97 per cent) and DK Shivakumar (7 per cent).
Coming to the region-wise projection, the opinion poll survey shows that both BJP and Congress are likely to get 15 seats each in Greater Bengaluru, while in Central Karnataka BJP 13 and Congress can win only 8 seats. The opinion poll projected a majority for the Congress from the Hyderabad-Karnataka region with 32 out of 40 seats, while the BJP could win only 6 seats, with the JD-S 2 seats. Out of total 62 seats in Old Mysore, Congress can win 26, JD-S 28 and BJP 7 seats. Out of total 19 seats in Coastal Karnataka, BJP can win 15 while Congress can win 4 seats. In other regions like Bombay Karnataka which has a total of 50 seats, the BJP can win 29 while the Congress can win 20.
However, this is not the first opinion poll survey which has predicted a victory for the Congress party. According to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress party is expected to win a majority of seats and form the government in Karnataka, with the BJP suffering significant losses and the Janata Dal (Secular) performing poorly.
Another survey by India Today-CVoter predicted that the ruling BJP is projected to lose the Karnataka assembly elections. The opinion poll predicts that the BJP may win only 74-86 seats, which is a shortfall of 24 seats from the number it won in 2018. Idina, a Kannada outlet, conducted a pre-poll survey which predicted a majority for the Congress party. 32-140 seats, while BJP is projected to get 57-65 seats.
Only the opinion poll survey by The Zee News-Matrix had predicted that the BJP would emerge as the party with the maximum number of seats.
The Karnataka assembly elections will be held in a single phase on May 10, with the counting of votes scheduled for May 13. The majority mark to form the government is 113 seats. Notably, Karnataka is the only state in the south where the BJP is in power.
Meanwhile, the The Election Commission has given its advice to the political parties. It also said that no party or candidate should publish any advertisement in the print media on the day of poll and a day before without approval from the Media Certification and Monitoring Committee.
“No political party or candidate or any other organization or person shall publish any advertisement in the print media on the day of poll and one day before the day of poll unless the material of the political advertisement is pre-approved by them from the MCMC in the State- certified / district level, as the case may be,” the Advisor said. Forty-eight hours before the close of the poll is considered a period of silence.
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