moving policy away from population control

United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP), 2022Forecast India to become most populous country by 2023Overtakes China with a population of 140 crores. This is four times (34 crore) the population of India at the time of independence in 1947. Now, in the third stage of demographic transition, and experiencing a slow growth rate due to persistently low mortality rates and rapidly declining fertility, India accounts for 17.5% of the world’s population. According to the latest WPP, India will reach 150 crore by 2030 and 166 crore by 2050.

a sea change

In its 75-year journey since independence, the country has witnessed a major change in its demographic structure. In the 1960s, India’s population growth rate was over 2%. At the current rate of growth, it is expected to fall to 1% by 2025. However, the country has a long way to go to achieve population stability. This is expected to be achieved after 2064 and is estimated to be 170 crores (as mentioned in WPP 2022).

According to the National Family Health Survey, last year, India reached an important demographic milestone, for the first time, its total fertility rate (TFR) slipped to two below replacement level fertility (2.1 children per woman). However, even after the replacement level of fertility is reached, the population will continue to grow for three to four decades due to population movement (larger groups of women in their reproductive age groups). After independence, in the 1950s, India had a TFR of six. Barring Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya, many states have reached the TFR of two. All these states face hurdles in achieving low TFR. These include high illiteracy levels, rampant child marriages, high levels of under-five mortality, low workforce participation and low contraceptive use compared to other states. Most of the women in these states do not have an economic or decisive role in their lives. Without improving the status (quality of life) of women in society, only one-sided development can be achieved.

demographic segmentation

A larger population is believed to mean greater human capital, higher economic growth and improved living standards. Over the past seven decades, the share of the working-age population has increased from 50% to 65%, resulting in a significant decline in the dependency ratio (number of children and the elderly per working-age population). As in WPP 2022, India will have the largest workforce globally, i.e., in the next 25 years, one in five working-aged individuals will live in India. This work-age boom will continue to grow through the mid-2050s and India must harness it. However, there are several obstacles to harnessing this demographic dividend. India’s labor force is constrained by the absence of women from the workforce; Only a quarter of women are employed. The quality of educational achievements is not perfect, and the country’s workforce badly lacks the basic skills needed for the modern job market. Having the largest population with one of the world’s lowest employment rates is another major obstacle to achieving the ‘demographic dividend’.

Another demographic concern of independent India is the male-dominated sex ratio. In 1951, the country had a sex ratio of 946 females per 1,000 males. Barriers preventing sex ratio improvement, such as preference for sons and sex-selective abortion, the nation first began to see little improvement in the sex ratio since 1981. In 2011, the sex ratio was 943. females per 1,000 males; By 2022, this is expected to be around 950 females per 1,000 males. It is a shame that one in three girls missing globally due to sex selection (both prenatal and postpartum) is from India – 46 million of the total 142 million missing girls. Improving the sex ratio should be a priority as some communities face serious challenges from lack of marriage (an imbalance between the number of men and women available for marriage in a typical society) and ultimately the purchase of brides.

Life expectancy at birth, a summary indicator of overall public health achievements, saw a remarkable recovery graph from 32 years in 1947 to 70 years in 2019. It is welcome to see how many mortality indicators have improved over the past seven decades. The infant mortality rate decreased from 133 in 1951 (for large states) to 27 in 2020. The under-five mortality rate fell from 250 to 41, and the maternal mortality rate fell from 2,000 in 1940 to 103 in 2019. Women of reproductive age in India are anemic, and every third child under the age of five is stunted. India ranks 101st out of 116 countries in the Global Hunger Index; This is very difficult for a country which has the most comprehensive welfare programs for food security through the Public Distribution System and the Mid-Day Meal Scheme.

serious health risk

The country has also seen a tremendous change in disease patterns in these 75 years: while India was fighting communicable diseases after independence, there has been a transition towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which account for more than 62 percent of the total Is. Deaths. India is a global disease burden leader as the share of NCDs has nearly doubled since the 1990s, which is a primary cause for concern. India is home to over eight crore people living with diabetes. In addition, India alone accounts for more than a quarter of the global deaths due to air pollution. With a growing population vulnerable to rising NCDs, India faces a serious health risk in the coming decades. In contrast, India’s health care infrastructure is highly inadequate and inefficient. Additionally, India’s public health funding is low, accounting for between 1% and 1.5% of GDP, one of the lowest percentages in the world.

Should the state stop focusing on population control? , The Hindu Parle Podcast

India is said to be a young nation, with 50% of its population below the age of 25. But the share of India’s elderly population is now increasing and is expected to be 12% by 2050. The elderly population will increase rapidly after 2050. Therefore, the need of the hour is to invest in advance in the development of a strong social, financial and health care support system for older people. The focus of action should be on broader investment in human capital, older adults living with dignity and aging healthy populations. We must be prepared with suitable infrastructure, conducive social welfare schemes and massive investments in quality education and health. Population control should be ignored; We no longer have such a serious problem. Instead, increasing quality of life should be a priority.

Aditi Choudhary and Nandlal Mishra are Doctoral Fellows at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai