Former Pakistan’s spy chief Lt Gen Asim Munir was appointed as the Chief of Army Staff. , Photo Credit: AP
AleLieutenant General General Qamar Bajwa has been replaced by Asim Munir. as the Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan. Delay in announcement, a volatile political situation in Islamabad, continuing insurgency in western provinces, cancellation of ceasefire by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and tensions with Taliban should be his immediate concern. What is being projected as the ‘Bajwa legacy’ could be his primary challenge. Lt Gen Munir inherits a legacy of old issues with civil-military relations that surfaced during Gen Bajwa’s tenure.
imran khan challenge
There are six important challenges for Lt Gen Munir. First is Imran Khan. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Mr. Khan would not have been successful in the 2018 elections had it not been for the establishment. The ‘Project Imran’ was supposed to gain momentum after Gen Bajwa assumed office in November 2016 and Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court following the Panama Papers revelations in 2017. The establishment should have decided to back PTI as a replacement for Sharif. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Many believe that the rise of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), its violent protests in Faizabad in 2017, and its subsequent political involvement were a part of political engineering in Punjab. The TLP cut into the traditional support base of the PML-N in Punjab, giving political space to the PTI. The 2018 election result was a surprise: Mr Khan won Punjab and formed a government in Islamabad. The establishment must have been enthused by the removal of the PML-N from Islamabad and Punjab. However, despite declaring to be on the same page, Mr Khan seemed to be on a different page. The delay in extension of General Bajwa’s term in 2019 and the tussle between the army and the government over choosing a new Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief in 2021 showed their differences. Finally, in April 2022, Mr. Khan had to quit after failing to prove his majority against the collective political onslaught of the Pakistan Democratic Movement. He blamed the establishment and a foreign conspiracy. The fallout with the General Headquarters (GHQ) was complete when the Director General-ISI and DG-Inter Services Public Relations Pakistan condemned Mr Khan’s anti-establishment narrative in a press meet. Mr Khan said the condemnation was senseless and later accused an army officer of being part of a plot to assassinate him. How will the new army chief deal with Mr. Khan? In 2017, Mr Khan did not have a wide support base outside Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, especially in Punjab. However, the results of the recent by-elections should point to a new populist Khan.
Second, the PML-N and PTI are polarized inside and outside Parliament and in the main provincial assembly – Punjab. Mr Khan is threatening to disturb political stability by taking out another long march demanding early elections. So far, the Shehbaz Sharif government has failed to address rising power and energy prices and provide flood relief. Pakistan needs a stable government. Mr. Khan wants the establishment to put pressure on the government to hold early elections. However, Lt Gen Munir would like some time before the next election, as Gen Bajwa did before the 2018 polls.
The third challenge relates to the establishment’s political engineering projects in Punjab and Sindh. Gen Bajwa’s efforts in Punjab have given space to the PTI and the extremist TLP. TLP weakened the PML-N vote bank to ensure that ‘Punjab minus PML-N’ materialises. In the upcoming elections, TLP is likely to participate in Punjab and Sindh, eating away at PML-N’s share instead of PTI’s. Will Lt Gen Munir be able to bring back the genie of TLP? The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) was disbanded by the government in Karachi under General Bajwa. The MQM is factionalized today and talks are already on to bring the factions together before the next elections. While it was easy for the outgoing army chief to stay out of politics, it is unlikely to be an easy call for the new chief.
The fourth challenge is to repair the image of the establishment. Earlier, intelligence agencies could control and manipulate the media, but now different news portals and people on social media question the control of the establishment. An example of this is the recent revelations about the financial condition of General Bajwa and his family. Despite the brazen attacks on him, some journalists and media houses have been questioning the role of intelligence agencies in the disappearances and attacks against him.
challenge of extremism
The last two challenges are from the Western Provinces and the Durand Line. Political protests in Gwadar in Balochistan are linked to Baloch middle-class fears about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor rather than ideological violence led by Baloch extremists. The TTP continues to operate in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as can be seen from the recent violence in the Swat Valley. On 28 November, the TTP finally announced its withdrawal from the ceasefire and asked its cadres to strike whenever and wherever. Addressing the insurgency and the ceasefire with the TTP should have been the two primary legacies of General Bajwa; Now, he stands as a challenger to Lt Gen Munir. The return of the Taliban in Kabul has not made the Durand Line any easier for the establishment. The shutdown in border points underscores the uneasy GHQ-Taliban relationship.
In short, Gen Bajwa has left a challenging legacy for Lt Gen Munir. Will the new army chief leave a better legacy for his successor or keep tangling?