Ron DeSantis’s Leaning to the Right Hurts His Presidential Chances

“Four sessions’ worth of legislation” was “done in one session,” claims Republican Speaker of the House Paul Reiner: “In scope, it’s unlike any other.” Politically impractical ideas have been signed into law for decades. These include a six-week abortion ban, carrying a gun without a license (requiring no training or background checks) and a “universal” school-voucher plan (allowing parents to send their children to private or home education). can use public-school funds). regardless of their income).

It may seem surprising what used to be a swing state in presidential elections – remember the “Hanging Chads” of 2000. The Sunshine State still has a sizable proportion of independent voters: 28% are registered with no party affiliation. There are two forces at work. is one The rise of Ron DeSantis, governor, as a potential presidential contender. After his re-election last November, when he won by more than 19 points, some national pollsters viewed him as the Republican’s best chance to defeat Donald Trump. Although he has yet to announce his run, he is using his state as a platform to project his “Florida Blueprint” for the rest of the country. primary voter.

Second, although the legislature has been under their control since 1997, the election gave Republicans new super-majorities (at least two-thirds) in both chambers. Aubrey Jewett at the University of Central Florida says it’s only the second time Republicans have achieved such a majorities, and it’s the largest margin ever. Bills have been passed without the need for any agreement.

The two chambers collapse in lockstep under Mr. DeSantis’ orders. Ambition certainly plays a part, with lawmakers hoping their loyalty will be paid back with plum jobs Should Mr. DeSantis End Up In The White House, But Jeff Brandes, a former Republican state senator, thinks it’s “mostly fearmongering.” Mr. DeSantis has shown a willingness to strike back against legislators who cross him.

Nearly every one of Mr. DeSantis’ legislative priorities has passed, as have some bills headed for him. Overturns a Florida “to resign” law, no longer requiring a person to step down from current office if they seek the presidency or vice-presidency. Government money apparently for security reasons.

About 25-30% of the legislature’s time this session has been taken up by “culture-war issues,” reckons Randy Fine, a Republican House member. Above his long-running feud with Disney and attempting to ban “diversity, equity and inclusion” initiatives. Even some of his biggest supporters have been baffled by how far he has taken things – including a proposal to extend last year’s ban on classroom discussions of gender identity and sexuality, Which is known by critics. Billed as “Don’t Say Gay” from 3rd grade (students aged 7-8) to 12th (17-18).

Social issues may sway the Republican base, but none are of prime concern to the average Florida voter. (According to a survey conducted in March by the University of North Florida, affordable housing comes out on top, followed by the economy.) The legislature has set aside money to boost the supply of affordable housing and has increased height and zoning regulations. Has changed, and passed an atrocity-reform law to cut down on lawsuits, including property insurance, which costs nearly triple the national average in Florida. But many Florida-goers are unimpressed. “I wonder what this legislative session would have looked like if Governor DeSantis had decided to stay on,” says Mr. Brandes, who thinks “he would be more inclined to deal with the pressing problems” in Florida.

The session has also given a somewhat unflattering outline of what it might be like to have Mr. DeSantis in high office. “I think he’s telling voters who he is, and we should believe him,” says State House Democratic leader Fenris Driskell. He has shown a reactive streak. Mr. DeSantis pushed for the law to be changed to give the death penalty to the perpetrator who killed 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. Someone can now be sentenced to death with the dissent of four of the 12 jurors, making Florida one of only two states (along with Alabama) that do not require unanimity for the death penalty.

His battle with Disney has shown a tendency to retaliate and a willingness to push to the extreme. Last spring, after Disney’s then-boss spoke out against the “Don’t Say Gay” law, Mr. DeSantis and the legislature stripped Disney of its “special privileges.” At first, dressing-down a “woke” corporation seemed like an easy win, but it’s turned into a distraction. Mr. DeSantis has suggested that the state could build a prison near Disney World. Disney has filed a lawsuit arguing the state’s behavior is bullying. is unconstitutional, and a board appointed by Mr. DeSantis has responded with a countersuit of its own. Even some allies of Mr. DeSantis have been privately critical, saying that a pro-business state should not target a company for speaking out.

More people are questioning his political acumen. Some were concerned by his criticism of US support for Ukraine, which he shrugged off as a “territorial dispute”. He had already satisfied the Republican base last year when he signed a 15-week abortion ban; The six-week ban passed in this session was carried forward. “I can think of a significant number of people here who don’t want any part of what happened in the last 60 days,” says a Republican businessman and former DeSantis donor in Florida. “vindictive, autocratic and absurd”.

Although Mr DeSantis has a war chest that political-news website Politico estimates at $110m (including political-action committee funds), his popularity pales in comparison to Mr Trump’s. A recent The Economist/YouGov poll shows that 53% of Republicans would prefer to see Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024, compared to 31% for Mr. DeSantis. This is a surprising reversal from last November, when 46% supported the governor and 39% supported the former president.

Recently members of Congress from Florida have come out to support Mr Trump, with only one publicly endorsing Mr DeSantis. “DeSantis lives in a very different world where he doesn’t reach out to members,” Mr. Brandes says.

But whatever happens in Mr. DeSantis’ presidential election, he will continue to leave his mark on the country. Some of his policies, such as “Don’t Say Gay” laws, are already spreading to other states. One of Florida’s potential new laws, which criminalizes the transport of illegal immigrants and requires hospitals to record people’s immigration status, is “the most comprehensive and targeted immigration bill in the country” and a model followed by other states. predicts Maggie Mick of government-relations firm Multistate. Even if the “Florida Blueprint” does not become a road map for the White House, it will likely inspire other Republican-controlled states to copy Florida’s plans.

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