The cracks in the centre: on the French election

The parliamentary elections of June 2017 were held a few weeks later. Emmanuel Macron elected first presidentJean-Luc Melenchon’s Left France’s Unbold Party won only 17 seats, Five years later, Mélénchon’s coalition has emerged as the second largest bloc in the French parliament with 131 seats, clearly showing a resurgence of the left. Mr Macron’s party, the Renaissance, and its allies won 245 seats, less than the 289 needed for an absolute majority in the 577-member National Assembly. The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, finished third with 89 seats, a historic high. The results largely support the trend that was visible during the presidential elections earlier this year. In the first round, the two far-right candidates – Ms. Le Pen and Eric Zemour – and Mr. Mélancheon of the left, together received over 50% of the vote. Mr Macron took a comfortable victory in the run-off, but his margin over Ms Le Pen narrowed significantly in contrast to 2017 – an indicator of slow-burn voter outrage. Mr. Mélancheon read tea leaves correctly and built a broad left-wing platform to contest parliamentary elections. He aligned himself with the Socialists, Communists and the Greens, trying to avoid division among voters on the left side of the center spectrum. Ms. Le Pen reiterated on her anti-immigrant populism. Mr Macron, facing a two-pronged attack, could not hold his centrist fortress.

The politics of France, which was traditionally dominated by centre-right conservatives and centre-left socialists, has undergone structural changes. As the old consensus collapsed, Mr Macron, a liberal populist, emerged as the custodian of the status quo. With pro-market economic policies and social liberalism, he presented himself as an alternative to the emerging new left and far-right parties. Although this helped him win back-to-back presidential elections, he could not quell the growing resentment that has engulfed his own party. The next five years will be tougher for him as compared to his last term. They will have to ally with conservatives or garner support from the Left to drive their legislative agenda. What makes it worse is the continuing crisis of cost of living that has rocked Western economies. For now, France has managed to control fuel and electricity prices with a cap, but consumer price inflation has hit record levels. With an increasingly escalating energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, France, dependent on energy imports, is facing additional pressure. This explains Mr. Macron’s secure approach to the struggle. Unlike Britain, America or Eastern European countries, they have repeatedly called for an end to the war through dialogue. Until the war is over, it cannot effectively deal with inflationary pressures. And unless he deals with a subsistence crisis, he can’t stop the new left and far-right from eating into his support base.