The weight of a Covid-free Australian state reopening to the world

For Western Australia’s 2.7 million residents, life looks a lot like it did before the pandemic. They can go without face masks, rub shoulders at sports games, and go to crowded pubs for drinks after work. Since the pandemic began, the state’s economy has grown at nearly twice the rate of Australia’s.

As a result, many in Western Australia are reluctant to forego those benefits, reconnecting with places that are grappling with outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta version of the coronavirus, including cities such as Sydney and countries including the US. Huh.

“If it is a cave, it is a very good cave,” said Mark McGowan, head of Western Australia.

More recently, Mr McGowan suggested that state borders could remain closed until at least April next year, barring other Australian states and territories with zero cases. Nearly six months after Australia was estimated to have fully immunized 80% of adults, a milestone that Prime Minister Scott Morrison has set for the resumption of international travel.

Western Australia’s approach illustrates the challenge that leads national leaders to accept COVID-19 as a less dangerous disease, like the flu, that paralyzes daily life. The challenge is heightened in countries with low rates of infection by global standards or where outbreaks are contained in specific cities or states.

Many epidemiologists feel hesitant to reopen Mr McGowan, given that the delta variant is still not fully understood, especially its transmission potential among children.

Australia rolled out its four-stage exit strategy in early July, relying on modeling by the Doherty Institute, a joint venture between the Royal Melbourne Hospital and the University of Melbourne. The plan calls for a gradual easing of restrictions, when 70% of Australians aged 16 or older are vaccinated, and travel resumes when the vaccination rate reaches 80%. She goes.

But other modeling from the Australian National University, the University of Western Australia and the University of Melbourne suggested that at least 90% of all Australians, including children, be vaccinated before public health measures are completely relaxed and international borders open. needed. At the moment, Australia has fully immunized 39% of its population, with another 21% getting a shot, according to Our World in Data. Most of those vaccinated are at least 16, as vaccinations for the 12 to 15 age group opened on 13 September.

“The reopening of Western Australia’s borders in the near future is all risk and no reward,” said Dr Zoe Hyde, an epidemiologist at the University of Western Australia. “Opening WA prematurely to the eastern states would be an incredible act of social and economic barbarism.”

Western Australia is Australia’s largest state by land area, and is protected by its relative isolation at four times the size of Texas. Its capital, Perth, is closer to the distance of Jakarta and Singapore than Sydney, with most of the state covered by desert.

It last closed Perth in June when three cases of the delta version of the coronavirus were detected, before lifting restrictions four days later. Some doctors are concerned that the state’s hospital network does not have enough spare capacity to meet the influx of Covid-19 patients.

Vishal Mohan, a 38-year-old recruitment consultant in Perth, would like to see Western Australia finally open up, but not when there is a risk of contracting the virus or passing it on to his family in Singapore, which he hasn’t seen in 18 months.

“Safety is important from a personal point of view,” she said. “I also have asthma. If I really do get Covid, I don’t know how I’m going to go health-wise.”

Some Australian leaders have adopted a national reopening plan. New South Wales, home of Sydney, this month unveiled a “road map to freedom” despite Covid-19 cases hitting nearly 1,000 cases per day. It plans to lift the stay-at-home order for fully vaccinated people on the Monday after the vaccination portion. The population is over 70% adults. Stores, hair salons and gyms will also be allowed to reopen.

Mr McGowan, the premier of Western Australia, said he would not consider reopening the state border until the vaccination rate has reached at least 80% of the adult population, and ideally between 80% and 90% .

“I don’t want to see large numbers of people die, and I don’t want to see our economy crashing. That’s why we’re not doing that,” he said.

Adding to the challenge of Western Australia is its large indigenous population, many of whom have existing health problems. In places where the virus has spread uncontrollably, such as the US, indigenous people are over-represented in hospitalizations and deaths.

Perth resident Robin Reid said in Western Australia it would be wise to wait until other states reopen, so it can learn from his experience. But it is not possible to remain closed forever, he said, even if it means restrictions on daily life, such as mask mandates or capacity limits at places like pubs where his son’s band played recently.

“I know some people talk about, ‘Oh, don’t open the borders until it’s 100% secure,’ but I don’t know if that will ever happen,” Mr Reid said. “So I guess we just have to go with the flow, but do it as carefully as we have to.”