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New Delhi: India is grappling with a growing crisis as coal reserves, the fuel used to produce nearly 70% of the country’s electricity, fall to their lowest in years as electricity demand rises.
The average of coal-fired power stations is four days’ According to the latest figures, the value of the fuel stockpiles, and more than half the plants are already on alert for outages. Power Minister Raj Kumar Singh gave a warning to the country handle supply squeeze for six months.
Power shortages are already emerging, and the gap between available power supply and peak demand has been exceeded. 4 gigawatts According to government data of the Ministry of Power on Monday.
While coal shortages in China and that country’s power shortage have garnered the most attention, it is India that faces a potentially worsening scenario.
Industrial and domestic consumption usually reaches peak levels as India enters the festive season from late October and could risk preventing a rebound in Asia’s third-largest economy, which is recovering from a unprecedented 7.3% contraction in the fiscal year ended March.
Here are some possible next steps and obstacles in India’s crisis:
mining rebound
State-run Coal India Ltd, the world’s top producer of the fuel, is seeking to increase daily coal supply to 1.9 million tonnes by mid-October, from around 1.7 million tonnes currently. loss. Delivery According to India’s coal secretary Anil Kumar Jain, there is currently a shortfall of 60,000 to 80,000 tonnes per day at power plants.
Coal production has been affected by severe flooding in India’s eastern and central states during the normal monsoon season, affecting mines and major logistics routes. Any recovery will depend on the weather – rain needs to stop to allow mines to ramp up operations and allow coal trucks to resume deliveries.
The government on Tuesday said it would allow companies that have been allotted coal and lignite mines for their own use, to sell 50% of their annual production to bridge the shortfall.
While coal reserves at power plants are dangerously low, it is unlikely that operations will run out of fuel entirely. Government ministries and industry are working to closely monitor stocks, and may move again to divert supplies from industrial users such as aluminum and cement manufacturers to prioritize power generation. That would leave those industries facing their own dilemma: curbing production, or paying higher prices for imported coal.
Read also: Power crisis deepens in India, 4 days of coal reserves left
supply control
Rationing of domestic electricity supply, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, could emerge as one of India’s easiest solutions – though it will pose other challenges for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Indian power distributors typically cut supply in some areas when production is below demand, and will consider expanding load-shedding if power plants take a further hit.
However, doing so would jeopardize the country’s fragile economic recovery and the Modi government is already facing criticism for failing. generate enough new jobs.
price incentive
Rising electricity prices could potentially make it viable for some coastal plants to use higher-cost imported coal, easing some of the burden on domestic miners.
The country meets about three-quarters of electricity demand with locally produced coal, and most of the rest imported from countries including Indonesia, South Africa and Australia.
Spot prices of electricity sold through the Indian Energy Exchange Ltd jumped more than 63% year-on-year to an average of Rs 4.4 ($0.06) per kilowatt hour in September and were as high as Rs. Rs 13.95 According to official figures on Wednesday. That means some plants may now look to snap up expedited cargoes of marine coal, even with commodity prices rising. Record.
New guidelines are being drafted to allow generating companies to sell surplus power on exchanges, so that dormant plants can be put back into action. Two huge plants owned by Tata Power Company and Adani Power Ltd in the state of Gujarat are among those that have been troubled as a result of issues including high imported coal prices.
fuller dam
The same monsoon rains have flooded coal mines, which is likely to boost hydroelectric power generation.
Large hydroelectric projects on dams are India’s major power source after coal and the region is at its peak during the rainy season which is usually from June to October.
Production from projects during the six months to September 30 accounted for about 14% of India’s total output, and this share could increase if the plants can operate at higher utilization rates. Recent data shows that hydropower generation is well above target, a sign that companies are beginning to ramp up production.
turn to gas
Natural gas may also play a big role in the current rise in global prices. India has about 25 GW of gas-based generation capacity, although about 80% of that capacity remains untapped due to high fuel prices.
At current prices, imported LNG cargoes purchased in the rising spot market are not a solution for Indian power generators, which buys and sells LNG, according to Arun Kumar Singh, chairman of Bharat Petroleum Corp, India’s second-largest fuel retailer.
However, in a hopeless situation a gas-powered fleet can help prevent any widespread power outages. For example, the state-run generator NTPC Ltd. has idle capacity which can be turned on in about 30 minutes as and when required and is connected to the gas grid.
expensive diesel
Any switch to oil products such as fuel oil and diesel may be limited due to pollution restrictions and prohibitively high prices. As it stands, the lack of large oil-fired plants directly connected to the grid means that gas-to-fuel swaps are unlikely to occur on a large scale.
Some commercial establishments, including hospitals and malls, as well as small industries use diesel-based generators to ensure uninterrupted power supply in the event of a power outage. But the record high diesel prices in the country will prevent their widespread use. – bloomberg
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