What does Lula’s return to Brazil mean for India?

Lula’s return to power in the most populous and largest country in Latin America was based on a platform promoting democracy and protection of the environment as well as social justice. It represents almost the exact opposite of everything his right-wing rival and current Jair Bolsonaro. In his time in power, the latter ignored democratic norms and undermined institutions such as the Supreme Court as well as spread fake news and cultivated the military by employing thousands of military personnel in government positions. Bolsonaro also presided over the unprecedented scale of destruction of Amazon forests, as well as a largely mismanaged response to Covid.

You might also like

Three next generation Tatas inducted into Tata Trusts board

So, what’s the big deal about Blue Tick anyway?

FY24 capex target may be raised 10 trillion

How Bengaluru Airport is bridging the gap with Delhi, Mumbai

Lula’s margin of victory is small; He defeated Bolsonaro by 50.9% to 49.1%. And in this small difference lies the danger to Lula and the wider left movement in the region she symbolizes. Bolsonaro – Brazil’s version of former US President Donald Trump – has so far not accepted the verdict and had already made claims of political fraud before the latest run-off. Brazil is not far enough from a history of military dictatorship or political violence to ignore Bolsonaro’s outrage and threat. The January 6 uprising in Washington DC shows that even an older and far more institutional democracy like America could be suffering from collapse.

It is clear that his loss does not signal the end of a Bolsonaro moment in Brazil, more so than Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 US presidential elections, which marked the end of Trump’s brand of politics. Brazilian society – like American society – is affected by increasing political polarization. 25% of Brazil’s voters are now so radical that they vote for either the far-right or the far-left in the political arena, and the current campaign has seen heavy opposition from both sides.

To ordinary Indians, such turmoil and polarization in the two major democracies in the Western Hemisphere may seem a distant concern, but their government cannot completely ignore them in an era marked by the rise of China’s global economic and political influence. can do Despite their differences, both Bolsonaro and Lula are open to greater economic engagement with China. The distance probably allows for any Brazilian threat sense from China to subside. However, its position in groups such as BRICS and G20 gives Brazil so much importance that any desire to remain neutral on China, or worse, too enthusiastic support for China’s international role, could directly affect Indian interests. .

China is far from its most important trading partner for Brazil, even bigger than the US. India has comparatively little advantage with Brazil. In 2021, Brazil imported goods worth US$53.46 billion from China and US$7.23 billion from India, while its exports to China were worth US$88 billion and India only US$4.8 billion. Lula’s victory in Brazil should be an opportunity for the Indian foreign policy establishment to find institutional mechanisms to further accelerate economic ties.

The BRICS group is unlikely to provide such a mechanism. In fact, New Delhi needs to rethink the entire project, which has little abstract and very limited role in international politics other than providing cover for China’s anti-Western agenda. Instead, if India is serious about urgent global challenges like democracy and climate change, it should channel Lula’s emphasis on these issues and revive and privilege the IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) trilateral on BRICS.

Elsewhere in Minto

In Rai, Vivek Kaul explains How to rid GDP of male dominance, Niranjan Rajadhyaksha writes Why does inflation take longer to go down?, Arpita Mukherjee and Ishana Mukherjee explained Why we didn’t benefit from our FTA, long story exposed an accounting turn Which only removes emissions.