What does the Kerch Bridge attack mean for Russia

Why is the Kerch Bridge important?

The bridge is understood to be a pet project of Russian President Vladimir Putin and was inaugurated in 2018. Built at a cost of $3.6 billion, Kerch was the only bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea when the province was incorporated in 2014. The 19-km-long structure serves as a major artery for the supply of military assets and supplies to the Russian Armed Forces currently stationed in Crimea. It also has huge political significance given Putin’s personal interest in the project. The bridge has been a prominent symbol of Russian rule, helping to consolidate Moscow’s control over Crimea.

What actually happened?

On 8 October, a major explosion rocked the bridge. The exact reason is hotly debated with some claiming a missile strike by Ukraine. However, analysts point to CCTV footage, which shows that a truck had rammed the bridge before the explosion. Three people died and a part of the road bridge collapsed. The fire from the explosion spread to oil tankers on the bridge and also engulfed the railway tracks running parallel to the roads. Following the incident, Moscow claims that traffic has resumed on both rail and road bridges. Repair work on the damaged portion of the bridge is underway.

Who is responsible for the breakdown of the bridge?

Putin called the bombing an act of terror and blamed Ukraine’s special services. While Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the act, senior figures in the country have praised the action. These include the parliamentary leader of President Zelensky’s political party, a key adviser, and the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

What does this mean for war?

On a strategic level, the bombing of the Kerch Bridge exposed Moscow’s weak and exposed supply lines in Crimea. While supplies will not stop in Crimea, Russia will rely heavily on the only remaining supply route through Melitopol. The success of the attack points to massive failures in Russian intelligence and reinforces the notion that Russia has lost control of the war. Considering how closely the project was associated with Putin, it is also a major blow to the personal reputation of the Russian president.

What could happen next in the war?

Russia responded by bombing Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Lviv with a series of missile attacks. This could point to an ugly turn in the war, with attacks on civilian infrastructure becoming increasingly common. Experts are also concerned over the appointment of General Sergei Surovikin as overall commander of the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Surovikin, who also commanded the Russian army in Syria, has been accused in the past of extreme brutality against civilian targets.