It is one of the only states where the party’s leaderboard is still intact – can the Congress do a better job of resolving state-level rivalry here than it has done in its erstwhile strongholds like Punjab?
It is one of the only states where the party’s leaderboard is still intact – can the Congress do a better job of resolving state-level rivalry here than it has done in its erstwhile strongholds like Punjab?
full of political equations new variables in rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot was expected to succumb to pressure from the Gandhi family to take over as the national president of the Congress in place of ailing Sonia Gandhi, and after former Congress president Rahul Gandhi refused to step in. Interestingly, this possibility presents itself at a time when Rajasthan is more important than ever in the party’s history for the Congress’s overall electoral fortunes.
Arch of Ashok Gehlot’s career
Mr. Gehlot, 71, and the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for the third time, is known to be a sharp political mind. Each of the three times (1998, 2008 and 2018) he managed to put himself in the chief minister’s chair, it was against strong opponents. Against the advice of state leaders, who had been batting for Parasram Maderna, he was removed from the post of Chief Minister by the central leadership of the Congress in 1998 at the age of 47. In 2008, CP Joshi was to hold on to the chair, but lost his own seat by one vote, giving Mr. Gehlot a clear path to return. Similarly, after the 2018 assembly elections, the then state Congress chief, Sachin Pilot, was credited with pulling the party out of a rut and thus was widely expected to take the reins – but once again Mr Gehlot stole the march. The high command said that this was his last innings.
Mr Gehlot is now finally presented with a certain feat – if he does indeed take over the national leadership of the Congress, he will step down as chief minister a year or so before the assembly elections are due.
tough choice ahead
His possible exit has left the political circles of Rajasthan buzzing with many possibilities. Will he keep the condition of ‘anyone other than Sachin Pilot’? So there will be two contenders, Mr. Joshi and Harish Choudhary, who is in charge of the Congress party in Punjab. But if Mr Pilot, who has been restless for a long time, finally manages to get the job, he will have just a year to turn the story around in a state where the party finds itself on the backfoot.
horrific murder of tailor kanhaiya lal Two Muslim men for allegedly supporting Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) spokesperson Nupur Sharma, who made controversial remarks on Islam, has further widened the communal divide, which is expected to benefit the BJP from polarisation. Historically, the Hindu right has found support in Rajasthan since the first assembly elections in 1952. BJP’s predecessor Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS) then got eight seats and 5% vote share. In 1962, this increased to 9.15% when it won 15 seats. In the same election, the centre-right Swatantra Party, backed by the royals, won 36 seats.
Nonetheless, in an unbroken tenure, the Congress ruled the state until 1977, when it was wiped out in the northern states after the Emergency. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, contesting on a Janata Party ticket, came to power in the state and became its first non-Congress chief minister. It was an emphatic victory, with the Janata Party securing over 50% of the votes.
In 1980, the Congress returned to power in the state and won the next election in 1985. However, given the internal politics of the party, between June 1980 and March 1990, the chief minister was changed six times, with Hari Dev Joshi holding the chair twice. The uncertainty was so intense that Congress leader Hira Lal Devpura was in the post for only 15 days. Shekhawat came to power again in 1990, and retained the chief minister’s post in the 1993 assembly elections, after a year-long hiatus of President’s rule.
The trend of regular oscillations of political power between the BJP and the Congress began in 1998 when Mr. Gehlot became the Chief Minister for the first time. The Congress won 153 seats in the 200-member assembly, resulting in a mismatch.
The 2003 elections in the state were a watershed for several reasons. with a loud slogan” Chappa, Chappa BJP (BJP everywhere)”, BJP crossed the 100 mark on its own with 120 seats for the first time. And the state got the first woman Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. In 2008, the Congress occupied the state, but the BJP came back to power in 2013, and then the Congress returned in 2018. Interestingly, in both 2008 and 2018, the margin of victory for the Congress was extremely small. In fact, in 2008, Ms. Scindia’s power struggle with Kirori Lal Meena cost the BJP the state.
In 2018, too, the results were projected more as a defeat for the BJP, and Ms Scindia in particular, rather than a victory for the Congress. Slogan, ” Modi is not hater to you, Vasundhara is not your best. (Modi we have no complaints with you, but Vasundhara we will not spare you)” resonated across the state – and of course, the BJP led Rajasthan to victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Congress election map
In 2024 Lok Sabha ElectionsThe Congress, however, faces the real danger of losing its pan-India parliamentary presence and diminishing as a party with few spheres of influence. In such a situation, winning every seat becomes very important. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress got 52 seats, 15 from Kerala, eight from Punjab and eight from Tamil Nadu. It may not be easy to defend all this, especially in Punjab.
Against this background, every seat will count, and the Congress will have to make a comeback, especially in states like Rajasthan, where it has not won a single seat in two consecutive general elections (2014, 2019).
The inability of the central leadership to resolve the fight between Mr Gehlot and Mr Pilot has made the Congress position more precarious. The party will be particularly wary of internal conflict, as happened recently in Punjab. Equally it would be mindful to keep its flock together – Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are the only major north Indian states that have yet to see significant, high-profile exits.
Ultimately, the outcome of the assembly elections due by the end of 2023 may depend on two things: the Congress’s ability to resolve the Gehlot-pilot dispute and the BJP’s ability to quell Ms Scindia’s rebellion. Whatever the outcome, the BJP has shown its ability to change the narrative at the national level and override local dynamics in the run-up to the parliamentary elections. However, Congress cannot rely on anything of the sort.