Dubai: At War Ukraine is “multiplying risk” for Middle East and raising the prices of food and energy in the poor countries of North Africa, world Bank said on Thursday, warning of possible social unrest.
in its latest update Mena Forecasting growth, the growth lender said Russia’s invasion is “likely to exacerbate” the inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19.
“The threat of the Covid-19 variant remains and the war in Ukraine has posed many risks, especially for the poor,” MENA Vice President of the World Bank. ferid belhajoThe report titled “Reality Check” said.
world bank president David Malpass It said this week that the Russian war on Ukraine has triggered a chain reaction in the global economy, leading to rising energy and food prices, rising debt concerns and potentially increasing poverty and hunger.
“Rising food prices may have far-reaching implications in addition to increasing food insecurity,” the report said, adding that historically, in MENA, rising bread prices have contributed to increasing social unrest and conflict.
“This link between food prices, conflict and under-development is a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in MENA in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states,” it said.
Ukraine is a major source of grain, while Russia is a major producer of the energy and fertilizer needed for agriculture. The MENA region is heavily dependent on the supply of wheat from both countries.
According to the report, inflation in oil-rich countries bay Countries are expected to reach 3.0 percent this year compared to 1.2 percent in 2021, and oil importing countries will increase to 3.7 percent from 1.4 percent last year.
“For some oil importers, food subsidies will be difficult to sustain due to limited resources,” the report said, while “rising oil prices could delay reforms”.
Despite this, the World Bank estimates economic growth in the region to be 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.
Daniel Lederman, the chief economist for the MENA region, told AFP in an interview that “the whole region is starving for oil” and is doing “much better” than any other in the world.
However, the expected growth is “inadequate and uneven”.
“Inadequate because a large number of economies in the MENA region will still be worse off in terms of GDP per capita than they were in 2019 on the eve of the pandemic,” he said.
and “unequally as fast (fine) economies are expected to be oil exporters for 2022, but oil importers are expected to suffer”.
Oil exporting economies are expected to grow by 5.4 percent due to the recovery from the pandemic, expected growth in oil production and higher oil prices.
But oil importers are expected to expand to a much lower 4.0 per cent, with the report saying that 11 out of 17 MENA economies may not reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
“When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and most vulnerable,” Lederman said.
in its latest update Mena Forecasting growth, the growth lender said Russia’s invasion is “likely to exacerbate” the inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19.
“The threat of the Covid-19 variant remains and the war in Ukraine has posed many risks, especially for the poor,” MENA Vice President of the World Bank. ferid belhajoThe report titled “Reality Check” said.
world bank president David Malpass It said this week that the Russian war on Ukraine has triggered a chain reaction in the global economy, leading to rising energy and food prices, rising debt concerns and potentially increasing poverty and hunger.
“Rising food prices may have far-reaching implications in addition to increasing food insecurity,” the report said, adding that historically, in MENA, rising bread prices have contributed to increasing social unrest and conflict.
“This link between food prices, conflict and under-development is a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in MENA in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states,” it said.
Ukraine is a major source of grain, while Russia is a major producer of the energy and fertilizer needed for agriculture. The MENA region is heavily dependent on the supply of wheat from both countries.
According to the report, inflation in oil-rich countries bay Countries are expected to reach 3.0 percent this year compared to 1.2 percent in 2021, and oil importing countries will increase to 3.7 percent from 1.4 percent last year.
“For some oil importers, food subsidies will be difficult to sustain due to limited resources,” the report said, while “rising oil prices could delay reforms”.
Despite this, the World Bank estimates economic growth in the region to be 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.
Daniel Lederman, the chief economist for the MENA region, told AFP in an interview that “the whole region is starving for oil” and is doing “much better” than any other in the world.
However, the expected growth is “inadequate and uneven”.
“Inadequate because a large number of economies in the MENA region will still be worse off in terms of GDP per capita than they were in 2019 on the eve of the pandemic,” he said.
and “unequally as fast (fine) economies are expected to be oil exporters for 2022, but oil importers are expected to suffer”.
Oil exporting economies are expected to grow by 5.4 percent due to the recovery from the pandemic, expected growth in oil production and higher oil prices.
But oil importers are expected to expand to a much lower 4.0 per cent, with the report saying that 11 out of 17 MENA economies may not reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
“When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and most vulnerable,” Lederman said.